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China

China's Long-Game Strategy For The Caribbean Sea

The U.S. has long enjoyed hegemony over the 2.7-million sq km Caribbean basin. But whether Washington likes it or not, Beijing is showing that it too wants a piece of the pie.

In the Caribbean Sea, a geostrategic move for China
In the Caribbean Sea, a geostrategic move for China
María del Pilar Ostos Cetina

-Analysis-

MEXICO CITY — China's geostrategic expansion toward the Caribbean Sea says a lot about the deeper interests feeding tensions between the world's biggest players. We see, most notably, how the United States, the hegemonic power of our region, is squared off against China and the Russian Federation, two emerging powers determined to challenge U.S. preeminence in the Caribbean and thus redraw the map of regional geopolitics in the early 21st century.

"In our infancy, we bordered upon the Atlantic only; our youth carried our boundary to the Gulf of Mexico; today, maturity sees us upon the Pacific," U.S. strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan wrote in 1890. Nearly 130 years later, his statement remains relevant, and imperial disputes over distant possessions or islands are still crucial to U.S. foreign and defense policies.

China's ascent through strategic alliances has not, therefore, gone unnoticed in Washington. One such alliance is with Russia, in the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. If this were to prove resilient, it could become a veritable obstacle to America's expansion-and-control plans worldwide. It would force the United States to boost spending and investments at strategic points in the world, including the Caribbean, where it will want to maintain an active presence.

In this context, China's ascent is renewing the importance of the Caribbean and may turn it into an authentic, geopolitical pivot within the century.

A paradise of strategic importance — Photo: Pablo García Saldaña

Chinese interests regionally revolve around a number of countries and islands bordering the 2.7-million square kilometer basin. This stretch of sea linked to the Atlantic includes territories administered by the European Union, such as Martinique, Guadeloupe, or French Guyana, as well as islands considered tax havens. In the cases of the Dominican Republic and Costa Rica, their geostrategic value lies in their farming and food production, while Trinidad and Tobago, Cuba, and Venezuela are important for oil and gas.

China's ascent is renewing the importance of the Caribbean and may turn it into an authentic, geopolitical pivot within the century.

In addition to the sea's vast natural resources, the Chinese also have their eyes on several small islands and states with votes in the United Nations. Closer ties with those islands could help boost Beijing's global influence. The Caribbean is therefore again becoming a focus and corridor of human activities, as seas like the Mediterranean were throughout history. It illustrates the mobile nature of geopolitical axes over time, in keeping with the shifting rivalries of major powers and the directions in which they project their strength and aspirations.

In this context, it's worth considering the position of Mexico as a country adjacent to the United States and located at the very heart of the basin. Its geographical position, proximity to the United States, and colonial past could give it a pivotal role along both the North-South and East-West axes, although, this time around, we shouldn't expect to see galleons on the horizon like in the days of Hernán Cortés, as China is envisaging other ways of sailing to this side of the world.

China has already "landed," for example, in Panama, where the government broke ties with Taiwan and recognized the People's Republic as the "Chinese government." The result, needless to say, was closer Chinese-Panamanian relations. Expect more such moves as China seeks to expand its presence and influence in the so-called "American Mediterranean."

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FOCUS: Russia-Ukraine War

That Man In Mariupol: Is Putin Using A Body Double To Avoid Public Appearances?

Putin really is meeting with Xi in Moscow — we know that. But there are credible experts saying that the person who showed up in Mariupol the day before was someone else — the latest report that the Russian president uses a doppelganger for meetings and appearances.

screen grab of Putin in a dark down jacket

During the visit to Mariupol, the Presidential office only released screen grabs of a video

Russian President Press Office/TASS via ZUMA
Anna Akage

Have no doubt, the Vladimir Putin we’re seeing alongside Xi Jinping this week is the real Vladimir Putin. But it’s a question that is being asked after a range of credible experts have accused the Russian president of sending a body double for a high-profile visit this past weekend in the occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol.

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Reports and conspiracy theories have circulated in the past about the Russian leader using a stand-in because of health or security issues. But the reaction to the Kremlin leader's trip to Mariupol is the first time that multiple credible sources — including those who’ve spent time with him in the past — have cast doubt on the identity of the man who showed up in the southeastern Ukrainian city that Russia took over last spring after a months-long siege.

Russian opposition politician Gennady Gudkov is among those who confidently claim that a Putin look-alike, or rather one of his look-alikes, was in the Ukrainian city.

"Now that there is a war going on, I don't rule out the possibility that someone strongly resembling or disguised as Putin is playing his role," Gudkov said.

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