For Xi Jinping, The Trump-Zelensky Debacle Was The Perfect New Year’s Gift

Updated March. 3, 2025 at 5:40 p.m.*

-Analysis-

BEIJING — “A shouting match.” That’s how the Chinese media describe the brutal confrontation between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky in front of the news cameras and international press at the White House on Friday. The reports from China noted the “very rare” and “dramatic nature” of an episode, which “exposes the deep differences between the United States and Ukraine” over a resolution of the three-year-long war.

And the incident, writes the Global Times, the tabloid close to the Chinese regime “also demonstrates to the Trump administration that ending the crisis could be more challenging than initially expected.”

It is precisely these “challenges” that China has been betting since February 2022, holding a position on the war in Ukraine that has substantially remained unchanged, confident that the weariness of the Western front would eventually lead all sides to accept Beijing’s request for a “political solution” based on the principles of “territorial integrity” and respect for the “legitimate security concerns of all parties.”

Beijing’s narrative

The two stated principles are of course difficult to reconcile in the war in Ukraine, given that Beijing has always supported Moscow’s anti-NATO and anti-American vision. Precisely for this reason Xi Jinping has never proposed himself, despite the misinterpretation of some analysts, in the role of mediator of the conflict.

The Chinese government Saturday, as is its usual practice, has offered no comment. Indeed, at an official level it will be inclined to support Trump’s efforts to find a political solution to the conflict. But, in reality, Zelensky’s humiliation on worldwide television is a spectacle that could hardly have gone better from Beijing’s perspective.

Nobody could have imagined the ultimate abandonment happening so grotesquely.

Sure, the world had already witnessed the fraying of the alliance between Washington, Kyiv and Europe, but nobody could have imagined the ultimate abandonment happening so grotesquely in front of the television cameras.

From a Chinese perspective, the episode ultimately demonstrates the disintegration of the reliability of the United States, as well as of the alliance between U.S.-led democracies around the world that had been reinforced by Joe Biden.

The White House show gives a remarkable boost in favor of Beijing’s narrative of how the world works, with some commenting on Chinese social media that Trump is “China’s best ambassador.”

A message for Taiwan

What is happening in Ukraine is in fact an ideal warning flag that Xi Jinping can wave toward his Asian neighbors of how unreliable the United States has become. The message, implicit or explicit, is rather clear: “They will arm you but then abandon you, as they did with Afghanistan first and now with Ukraine.”

Among the first targets of such a message is no doubt Taiwan, which observes with dismay the treatment reserved for Zelensky, and what it means for its own sovereignty as Beijing turns up the rhetoric on “reunification.”

But it’s also bad news for South Korea, Japan and the Philippines, which in recent years had become enormously close to Washington and are now skeptical about American commitment and stability. So much so that many predict a strengthening of the voices of those, between Seoul and Tokyo, who are calling for the development of their own nuclear arsenal, or the creation of a sort of Asian NATO to reduce dependence on U.S. assistance.

Nixon’s example

China can only smile. The theory of a new U.S. thaw with Moscow to isolate Beijing seems more like a fantasy than anything else. In the early 1970s, Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon exploited the divisions already in place between Beijing and Moscow, and were even involved in clashes along the Soviet-Chinese border.

This time, Washington would need to break the alignment between two powers that share many interests within the global order. Not to mention that China is more integrated into the Western economy than Russia, which has instead increased its dependence on Beijing with the war in Ukraine.

Of course, Vladimir Putin could use the thaw to increase his own strategic autonomy, but American unpredictability and frayed nerves with Europe do not facilitate a hypothetical break. So much so that just yesterday Xi received in Beijing the secretary of the Russian Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, hoping for a further strengthening of bilateral relations, just a few days after another phone call between Xi and Putin.

Global guarantor

Still, none of this means that Beijing wants to participate directly in the negotiation process to end the war in Ukraine. Indeed, at this stage China considers it damaging to its image to appear alongside Trump. This is also why it has so far been procrastinating on the summit requests put forward by the American leader, even at the cost of ending up in the crosshairs of a new barrage of additional tariffs.

China seems better prepared to face Trump than during his first term

Xi believes that at this stage, sitting back and observing the deepening tensions between the Americans and Europeans from the right distance could give him important advantages, starting with a possible improvement in relations with Europe.

China seems better prepared to face Trump than during his first term. Or at least, Beijing looks to try to see where to take advantage of the U.S. president’s approach to international policy. The first time, Beijing responded with the so-called “warrior-wolf diplomacy,” an aggressive posture that many now see as a wasted opportunity. This time, China is trying to project a softer and more conciliatory image, as the responsible power: guarantor of free trade, supporter of political dialogue on international crises. The approach is producing results in the so-called Global South, but Beijing believes it can also bear fruit in the West. Specifically, it is looking at a Europe that cannot fight two trade wars and has been itself disoriented by Trump’s drastic about-face.

It is no coincidence that Xi is currently giving an extra push promised to what he calls his “global peace initiative.” However vague this new manifesto, it embodies the rebranding of a China that can score diplomatic victories as the reliable alternative to the United States.

*Originally published March 1, 2025, this article was updated March 3, 2025 with more details about Taiwan’s reaction and enriched media.