Geopolitics

Why The Asian Economy Can't Escape Trump's Bad Choices

People walking by an electronic board showing stock indexes on Jan. 30, 2013 in Tokyo, Japan
People walking by an electronic board showing stock indexes on Jan. 30, 2013 in Tokyo, Japan
Kondo Daisuke

TOKYO — Since Japan"s fiscal year starts in April each year, it is in May that the country's major corporations announce their financial statements for 2017. Most top Japanese companies have had notably great results. The net profits of Toyota and Mitsubishi, for example, hit new all-time highs for their three and ten-year results respectively. As the data of the last three weeks shows, the net profit of the 798 biggest Japanese firms listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange rose by an average of 25%.

And yet even as these Japanese companies usher in a vibrant spring, I was also intrigued by a curious phenomenon — none of the CEOs of these Japanese enterprises offered even the slightest expression of happiness on their faces when they appeared in the press conference on TV news. Indeed, one sensed a shared sense of worry among them. Why is that?

It doesn't take long to figure out why. The economic climate is like the weather itself: Today may be a cloudless fine day, even as the weather forecast announces that a typhoon will arrive tomorrow. In brief, all these Japanese chief executives know that in a not-so-distant future their performances will start to decline.

Japanese economic fears are not just about oil.

So what is the cause of this impending economic "typhoon" for Japanese enterprises? The answer lies in one man: U.S. President Donald Trump and a series of decisions, and their reverberations. Trump's May 8 decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal sparked an increase in crude oil prices. After having plummeted to $35 per barrel two years ago, the oil price has risen gradually to about $70 per barrel. Two days after the US quit the Iran nuclear deal, Bank of America forecast that in 2019, oil price is expected to top $100 a barrel.

The economies of East Asian countries such as China, Japan and South Korea all are disproportionately dependent on Middle East oil supplies. That petrol prices will increase threefold in three years naturally has a big impact on these economies.

japan_usa_handshake

Japanese PM Abe and U.S. President Trump in Florida on April 18 — Photo: Allen Eyestone/ZUMA

But Japanese economic fears are not just about oil. Trump had also announced soon after taking office that the US was withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, a trade agreement signed by 12 countries in the Asia-Pacific region, that had largely been driven by Japan and the United States. Add to that last June's announcement that the US was withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement. Maybe Trump has plans to move America from the Earth, and move to Mars!

Yet Trump's runaway train doesn't stop there. On May 14, America's embassy in Israel was officially moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. This of course poured fuel on the flame that is the Middle East — and as the entire 20th century has proven, when there is fire in the Middle East, the rest of the world will be swept in as well.

Japanese chief executives know that in a not-so-distant future their performances will start to decline.

Add to these more political actions the devaluation of the dollar and ongoing risks of a Sino-U.S. trade war, and we can better understand those curious expressions on the faces of top Japanese CEOs.

On May 9, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and South Korean President Moon Jae-in were invited by Japan for a trilateral summit in Tokyo. In a joint declaration following the meeting, they said: "We recognize the importance of free and open trade and investment in achieving growth. We remain committed to liberalizing our economies, fighting all forms of protectionism, and improving the business environment." We might call this a "joint resistance declaration" aimed at President Trump's protectionist ways.

As a Japanese saying goes: sophistry prevails over reason. Alas, the only thing that Asians can do is to prepare for the arrival of a storm, while praying that it doesn't come. Trump may not believe in the concept of "karma," but in Asia, with its Buddhist roots, we are convinced of cause and effect, where good intentions and deeds bring happiness and bad intentions and deeds are doomed to lead to suffering. In a globalized economy, however, the suffering tends to spread far and wide.

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Society

A Mother In Spain Denied Child Custody Because She Lives In Rural Area

A court in Spain usurps custody of the one-year-old boy living with his mother in the "deep" part of the Galicia region, forced to instead live with his father in the southern city of Marbella, which the judge says is "cosmopolitan" with good schools and medical care. Women's rights groups have taken up the mother's case.

A child in Galician countryside

Laure Gautherin

A Spanish court has ordered the withdrawal of a mother's custody of her one-year-old boy because she is living in the countryside in northwestern Spain, where the judge says the child won't have "opportunities for the proper development of his personality."

The case, reported Monday in La Voz de Galicia, has sparked outrage from a women's rights association but has also set off reactions from politicians of different stripes across the province of Galicia, defending the values of rural life.


Judge María Belén Ureña Carazo, of the family court of Marbella, a city on the southern coast of 141,000 people, has ordered the toddler to stay with father who lives in the city rather than with his mother because she was living in "deep Galicia" where the child would lack opportunities to "grow up in a happy environment."

Front page of La Voz de Galicia - October 25, 2021

Front page of La Voz de Galicia - Monday 25 October, 2021

La Voz de Galicia

Better in a "cosmopolitan" city?


The judge said Marbella, where the father lives, was a "cosmopolitan city" with "a good hospital" as well as "all kinds of schools" and thus provided a better environment for the child to thrive.

The mother has submitted a formal complaint to the General Council of the Judiciary that the family court magistrate had acted with "absolute contempt," her lawyer told La Voz de Galicia.

The mother quickly accumulated support from local politicians and civic organizations. The Clara Campoamor association described the judge's arguments as offensive, intolerable and typical of "an ignorant person who has not traveled much."

The Xunta de Galicia, the regional government, has addressed the case, saying that any place in Galicia meets the conditions to educate a minor. The Socialist party politician Pablo Arangüena tweeted that "it would not hurt part of the judiciary to spend a summer in Galicia."

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