-Analysis-
CAPE TOWN — After the end of apartheid in 1994, South Africa is facing a second democratic birth. The clear loss of the African National Congress’ (ANC) absolute majority means the country will have to be governed by a coalition for the first time in 30 years. This is an undertaking that has pushed far more homogeneous societies in Europe to the limits of human negotiating ability.
South Africa is on edge right now. The ANC remains in a state of shock, and is fundamentally shattered. This is because the party owes its 17% drop not only to its mismanagement, but also to a large extent to the anti-constitutional Zulu nationalist splinter party MK, the brain child of former President Jacob Zuma, who had been an ANC member for 60-plus years.
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Zuma of all people, who had undermined not only the ruling party but also the state, is now positioning himself as a coalition partner — on the condition that President Cyril Ramaphosa of the ANC steps down.
That scenario would cause the greatest possible damage to the nation. And an ANC coalition with its best-known splinter party to date, the radical left-wing EFF, would hardly be any better.
Big risks for both partners
Now the opposition leaders of the Democratic Alliance (DA) have also signaled their willingness, and are demanding far fewer concessions than the MK and the EFF. A scenario that seems impossible at first glance: the DA, elected by a majority of whites, as the ANC’s junior partner. Its identity is still based on the distant past: the struggle against the white apartheid regime.
The risk is great for both parties, as they would be snubbing parts of their core electorate. And in view of the fact that high-ranking administrative posts are occupied by ANC loyalists who are both incompetent and irredeemable, it will take time to turn the tide.
Nevertheless, it would be the right decision — and perhaps not as unlikely as it currently seems. Ramaphosa’s opponents in the ANC are resisting a grand coalition. But there are also influential advocates within the party who are reportedly in favor of a coalition, including in the Eastern Cape Province, the heart of the early ANC years during the liberation struggle against the policy of racial segregation. Ramaphosa also has strong alliances there, despite the unprecedented loss of votes under his presidency.
Stormy times ahead
Anything else would be fatal for the country, which would otherwise slide completely into populist identity politics. There is a threat of capital flight, a collapse of the currency and thus a further rise in the cost of living and a social system that can hardly be financed — which are all fuel for unrest.
The ANC can only regain lost confidence with economic success. And in the event of a “No” vote, the DA could be accused of resigning itself to its role as opposition leader.
The upcoming phase of democracy will be turbulent — and not as glorious as in the 1990s during the peaceful transition, when the whole world was enchanted by the metaphor of the rainbow nation.
Now South Africa must face the traps and pitfalls of coalition building. This may not offer great material for Blockbuster movies, but the stakes of the nation are high once again.
This article was translated and published with the consent of the author.
