On The Verge Of A Truce? Why Netanyahu’s Hard Line Has Run Its Course

-Analysis-

PARIS — Joe Biden’s tired voice resonates: “It’s time for this war to end.” It was Friday, and the U.S. president had unexpectedly presented a three-phase plan to end the war, free Israeli hostages held by Hamas, along with Palestinian prisoners, and create the conditions for a lasting political peace treaty.

Three days later, where do we stand? That’s hard to determine right now. Israel and Hamas have responded with lukewarm approval, but it’s not entirely clear they agree on the same thing.

But was we do know with certainty is that Biden’s brief speech has plunged Israeli society and its political class into a frenzy not seen since the massacre of October 7th; and that a significant part of the conflict’s outcome will depend on how this confused and emotional national debate inside Israel evolves.

But first, what are we talking about? We’re not entirely sure. Joe Biden mentioned an Israeli proposal, but the Israelis are referring to an American plan. This is one of many ambiguous points in the proposed peace talks.

Major contradictions

In the plan presented by Biden, a provisional six-week ceasefire constitutes the first phase, with a hostage-for-prisoner exchange and the arrival of significant humanitarian aid in Gaza.

The prime minister’s balancing act is at its peak.

But it is in the second phase that things get complicated. Biden mentioned a permanent “cessation of hostilities,” with the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, which is what Hamas demands. Still, Benjamin Netanyahu’s side does not see it that way: the Israeli prime minister’s office has stated that there can be no permanent truce until the objective of destroying Hamas is achieved. This is the first major contradiction.

But this perspective was already enough to divide Israelis. On Saturday evening, tens of thousands of people demonstrated to prioritize the release of the hostages; but far-right ministers in the government have promised to bring down Netanyahu if he agreed. The prime minister’s balancing act is at its peak.

A never-ending process?

This is not the first time there has been hope for a ceasefire, but except for about ten days in November, hopes have always been disappointed due to a lack of agreement.

The role of external powers is crucial.

The internal political excitement across Israeli society may be the clearest sign right now that the demand to stop this war is gaining ground. This shift can be explained by the war aims becoming less and less comprehensible; Israel’s political and security leaders are also worried about the government’s lack of a plan for the post-war period; and finally Israel’s isolation on the world stage is growing with each new image of the ongoing tragedy in Gaza.

The problem is that the main local actors, Hamas and Netanyahu’s coalition, each with their own logic, may have an interest in prolonging the conflict. So once again, the role of external powers is crucial: with the United States despite acknowledging their impotence, an Arab world that has not broken with Israel, and to a lesser extent Europe. Everything argues in favor of stopping this war, but it is not certain that even everything is enough to make it happen quickly.