-Analysis-
WARSAW — Much depends on with whom and how Friedrich Merz will govern in Europe. But we know for sure that a weak Germany will mean a weak European Union. And that is exactly what Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump are counting on.
The word “Weimar” does not have the best associations for democratically-minded Germans. It was Feb. 6, 1919, when 423 deputies (including 37 women) of the National Assembly gathered in the court theater in a small central German city of Weimar. Four months earlier, Germany, which had been fighting through World War I for four years, had asked for an armistice, Emperor Wilhelm abdicated and fled to the Netherlands, and the German empire collapsed. A republic was established in its place.
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Elections were held in January 1919, but Berlin, engulfed in revolutionary fire — where a short-lived communist uprising had broken out — was not a safe place for parliament to meet. The deputies therefore gathered in that outlying city in the state of Thuringia. In August, they adopted a democratic constitution.
The Weimar Republic did not go down well in history, because that first attempt at making Germany a democracy did not end well, to say the least. The government was weak, the parliament was fragmented, social morale after the nightmarish war that Germany ultimately lost, was terrible. Similarly, the economic situation, which was the result of the imposed humiliating contributions.
The Weimar Republic was a time of endless crises. Its existence ceased to exist after less than 14 years with the arrival of Adolf Hitler. Few at the time mourned German democracy. Weimar democracy.
Weak morale
In spite of the popular adage, history does not repeat. But – as Mark Twain wrote – it rhymes. The current political chaos in Germany is not the result of a lost war, although there is a war going on close by, with the national elections held on the eve of the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The economy is the largest in Europe, and it’s faltering.
Morale in German society is low. The economy is the largest in Europe, and it’s faltering. The German welfare state is a shadow of what it once was, the nation’s infrastructure is falling apart, and the number of migrants is constantly growing. The results of the Bundestag elections are not encouraging.
The share of the vote for far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was particularly high, upwards of 20% support. The party also was boosted by backing during the campaign from the American billionaire Elon Musk, who claimed that only AfD could save Germany. Then U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance publicly demanded that the AfD be allowed to take power in the name of respecting democracy.
Stability lost
It must be said clearly: AfD members do not hide the fact that the dark German past inspires them.
Musk told them to stop being ashamed of it, because there is nothing to be ashamed of anymore. The fact that these shameful words, this brazen interference in the German elections, did not trigger a general mobilization against the far right is most worrying.
The “rhyming” of the current state of German politics with the Weimar Republic is becoming more and more distinct.
We in Europe have become accustomed to the fact that the German democracy that emerged after World War II was reliably strong and stable. At the turn of the 1980s and 1990s, the country was ruled by Helmut Kohl for 16 years, and that was followed by another 16-year reign of his disciple Angela Merkel.
But right now, that all seems like a long time ago.
Merz’s gambit
The government of Social Democrat Olaf Scholz collapsed at the end of last year because the parties that formed it were unable to cope with the challenges that the state was facing.
Coalition talks will certainly last for months. Like in the Weimar Republic
Will the government of Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz, who has just won the election, be more effective? First, it has to be formed with other parties as coalition partners. Only then can we have a first idea of what happens next.
Coalition talks will certainly last for months. Like in the Weimar Republic. A lot depends on who Merz will govern with and how he will govern. A weak Germany will mean a weak European Union. Moscow and Washington will be watching closely.
