-Analysis-
PARIS — What if a third war broke out that involved the United States? When you’re a superpower like the U.S., the question is by no means out of place.
The United States is now effectively waging two wars: in Ukraine indirectly, bringing support in arms and funding; and in Israel with ammunition supplies, deployment of forces in the region and a United Nations Security Council veto.
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This dual commitment has become problematic. According to a Financial Times poll, nearly half of U.S. voters think President Joe Biden is “spending too much” on Ukraine aid, 27% say the level is right and only 11% think the country is “not spending enough.”
Volodymyr Zelensky is in Washington, facing this lack of enthusiasm, while Biden is struggling to get an additional $60 billion approved for Ukraine. He has come up against Republican hostility which the Ukrainian president will try to overcome.
With the Middle East, the problem is different: Biden is facing opposition from a part of his constituency, particularly young Democrats, to his choice to support Israeli strategy since October 7. But in both cases, it is the credibility of the American commitment that is ultimately at stake.
Signals of a third war?
Hence the question of a third “front”: it is necessary to keep a close eye on the incidents that are multiplying in the South China Sea, between the Chinese and the Philippine navies, around a disputed islet. The Philippines has moved closer to the United States in recent months, even granting it four additional military bases located opposite Taiwan, the island Beijing wants to recover, willingly or by force.
Beijing is permanently testing American reactions.
It is not inconsistent to think that Beijing is permanently testing American reactions. Committed elsewhere, does the United States really have the desire, or the capacity to get involved for a symbolic pebble in the South China Sea?
This question of credibility arises all the time in the U.S. because of its status. Wasn’t its catastrophic departure from Kabul in August 2021 interpreted by Moscow as a signal that Washington would not react to the invasion of Ukraine six months later? Abandoning Ukraine today could send the same signal to China in Asia.
Washington’s influence
The U.S.’ superpower status forces it to constantly put its credibility on the line, with every crisis, every challenge from another power. But the real question is whether the Americans still want to hold that status.
With less than a year to go before the U.S. presidential election, with Donald Trump’s looming shadow, a clash between two contradictory visions of the world and of the role of the United States is at risk of igniting. Americans will not vote for or against aid to Ukraine, support for Israel, or engagement in the South China Sea, but their choice will have repercussions on all of these crises.
This uncertainty makes the world even more dangerous if the adversaries of the West tell themselves that the U.S. has neither the will nor the means to deliver on all fronts. Such a scenario puts an additional responsibility on European countries, at least in terms of aid to Ukraine. For in a very different way, Europe too has a credibility problem.
