Geostrategic, past and present

During the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the base was also the central hub for supplying U.S. soldiers to potential combat zones. Back when the base was built in the 1950s, the Cold War was the determining factor in the West's security policy.

The ultimate security policy in an insecure world.

The Soviet Union's territorial claims against Turkey prompted Ankara to integrate itself into Western security structures, and it became a member of NATO in 1952. The alliance with its nuclear umbrella, said Turkey expert Dimitar Bechev recently, was Turkey's "ultimate security policy" in an insecure world, where threats could come from Russia or Iran. This is still the case today.

On the other hand, Turkey, with its key geographical position between Europe, North Africa, the Middle East and the Caucasus, is of great importance to NATO — and with the airbase especially for the Americans.

"The geostrategic value of Incirlik is huge," says Alper Coskun, Turkey expert at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington.

Turkey is also home to the Kürecik radar station, an early warning system against ballistic missile attacks. For a long time, the Turkish government blocked NATO's northern expansion to include Sweden and Finland — Stockholm is still waiting for the green light — and acquired a Russian air defense system and took military action against Kurdish militias in northeastern Syria who were fighting alongside the Americans against ISIS.

Now, the war in the Middle East risks a deeper rupture to the relationship. Erdogan has declared Hamas to be freedom fighters, accused Israel of war crimes and described the country as a pawn of the West.

Threats to Blinken

"Relations between Washington and Ankara are strained," says Coskun.

During his visit earlier this month to Ankara, Blinken spoke with his counterpart as pro-Palestinian demonstrators gathered in front of the Turkish Foreign Ministry.

Earlier, the police had stopped a protest march during which, according to agency reports, students shouted "Murderer Blinken — get out of Turkey."

There have been repeated calls in Washington to reduce Ankara's leverage and look for an alternative to Incirlik. In the past, the Turkish government had threatened to close the Turkish-American base.

In October 2019, shortly after the start of a Turkish military operation against Kurdish militias in northeastern Syria, senators from both the Democratic and Republican parties unsuccessfully tried to push through a bill "to counter Turkish aggression." The draft included a request to the then President Donald Trump to explore alternatives to Incirlik.

"Washington should not burn bridges."

In fact, the U.S. has expanded relations with Greece in recent years, which some observers have seen as an attempt to reduce dependence on Ankara. In 2021, Washington and Athens extended a contract by five years for the use of the naval and air base near Souda on the island of Crete — previously it had to be renewed annually. The Pentagon has denied that the U.S. saw Greece as a possible replacement for Incirlik.

Jordan, Cyprus and Iraq are also considered alternative options, though the three countries are not part of NATO, which would make cooperation more complicated. In a 2016 article for the website "Defense One," former U.S. Air Force officer Charles F. Wald wrote: "The best solution would be to build a new military airfield in Iraq — in the area controlled by the Kurdish regional government."

Still, many American security experts agree that it is in the interests of the U.S. to maintain Turkey within its sphere of influence in order to prevent it from turning to Russia or China. "Washington should not burn any bridges now," says Turkey expert Coskun.

Incirlik is not an easy location for Washington to replace, especially since anti-American resentment appears to be growing everywhere.