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Geopolitics

UK Business Hates Brexit, But Opposes Second Referendum

St. Paul's Cathedral, London, United Kingdom
St. Paul's Cathedral, London, United Kingdom
Emma Ross Thomas

LONDON — The plot to reverse Brexit is missing a key ally: U.K. business. Companies have been among the most outspoken critics of the split from the European Union, and have much to lose from a divorce gone wrong. But as a group of lawmakers tries to engineer a second referendum, business leaders are recoiling.

"Business likes certainty and I can't see how discussion of a second referendum helps create that certainty when the negotiations are not even concluded," says Miles Celic, chief executive officer of TheCityUK, the finance industry's lobby group.

Businesses are uninterested in politics. They want commercial predictability.

The campaign for a popular vote on the final divorce deal that Prime Minister Theresa May brings back from Brussels later this year is gaining a bit of traction. Two recent polls have indicated there may be popular support for a vote on the terms of Brexit. The Institute for Government think tank sees a mechanism for Parliament to engineer another plebiscite later this year.

Financial district, London Photo: Rob Bye

It's worth remembering that there's no evidence a second referendum would produce a different result and it's far from clear there's a majority in Parliament to send weary voters back to the ballot box. There would be much debate on the question posed, and there would probably have to be some kind of extension to the Brexit day deadline. Pound investors also reckon sterling – now at post-referendum highs – would take a hit.

"Businesses are uninterested in politics. They want commercial predictability," said Paul Hardy, Brexit director at law firm DLA Piper. "Those who have spent a lot of money on it are ready to deal with it."

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Geopolitics

D.C. Or Beijing? Two High-Stakes Trips — And Taiwan's Divided Future On The Line

Two presidents of Taiwan, the current serving president, Tsai Ing-wen, and her predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou from the opposition Kuomintang party, are traveling in opposite directions these days. Taiwan must choose whom to follow.

Photo of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen

Tsai Ing-wen, the President of Taiwan

Pierre Haski

-Analysis-

PARIS — Tsai Ing-wen, the President of Taiwan, is traveling to the United States today. Not on an official trip because Taiwan is not a state recognized by Washington, but in transit, en route to Central America, a strategy that allows her to pass through New York and California.

Ma Ying-jeou, a former president of Taiwan, arrived yesterday in Shanghai: he is making a 12-day visit at the invitation of the Chinese authorities at a time of high tension between China and the United States, particularly over the fate of Taiwan.

It would be difficult to make these two trips more contrasting, as both have the merit of summarizing at a glance the decisive political battle that is coming. Presidential and legislative elections will be held in January 2024 in Taiwan, which could well determine Beijing's attitude towards the island that China claims by all means, including force.

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