-Analysis-
PARIS — We could spend hours commenting on Donald Trump‘s outrages on the campaign trail. But this time, he has gone a step further in asserting a position that jeopardizes Europe’s security and bodes extremely poorly for relations if he wins on November 5.
In a campaign speech in South Carolina, the former and perhaps future president explained that the U.S. would not defend a NATO member country from Russia that had not paid its dues, adding provocatively: “In fact, I would encourage them [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want. You’ve got to pay. You got to pay your bills.”
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A candidate saying out loud that he would encourage Russia to attack a member of a U.S.-led alliance is unprecedented, and outrageous — or as the White House put it: “appalling and unhinged”
Trump’s obsession wit NATO
First of all, it’s incredible because it means that Donald Trump is discarding Article 5 of the Atlantic Charter, which provides for automatic solidarity between NATO member states in the event of aggression against one of them. Collective security rests on this central article, and undermining it puts everyone at risk.
By the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO.
This isn’t the first time Trump has attacked NATO, having done so while in office. European Commissioner Thierry Breton recently recounted a scene he witnessed in 2020: the U.S. president addressed Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, saying: “You need to understand that if Europe is under attack we will never come to help you and to support you; By the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO.”
Here, he goes further, inviting Russia to attack Europeans who fail to pay their “debts.” In this respect, Trump has been making the same mistake for years: it’s not about debts, it’s not about money owed to NATO, it’s about meeting national military spending commitments. In 2014, the 31 NATO countries pledged to raise their defense spending to 2% of their gross domestic product. However, in 2022, only seven countries had met this commitment.
It’s a sticking point that goes far beyond Donald Trump: every American president has called for better burden-sharing. But Trump makes it a transactional affair: no money, no shared protection.
Europe must prepare
A tweet from France’s ambassador to NATO, Muriel Domenach, summed up the reactions in Europe: “We’re keeping our eyes open, we’re keeping calm, we’re carrying on,” she wrote Sunday.
This new alert to the transatlantic contract in the event of a Republican victory coincides with concerns over President Joe Biden’s inability to get his plan to finance aid to Ukraine through Congress. A Ukrainian defeat would weaken European countries in the face of a triumphant Russia.
Even disregarding the excesses of language due to the election campaign, no one should be under any illusions about Trump’s intentions should he win, especially instructed by the hindrances he experienced in his first term: He will be ruthless.
All that remains is to prepare for it: this is Europe’s number one challenge, just a few months away from a possible leap into the unknown.
