–Analysis–
The video is only 82 seconds long. But if it turns out to be authentic, it would be a spectacular success for Ukraine.
The Kyiv Post newspaper published footage last week that appears to show the interrogation of a captured Russian mercenary soldier of the Wagner Group by a Ukrainian military intelligence unit in Sudan. The man is blindfolded and identifies himself as a “soldier” from “PMC Wagner.”
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The blindfolded man then claims to be one of 100 men who traveled from the Central African Republic to Sudan’s capital Khartoum “to overthrow the local government.” This apparently refers to the Sudanese military junta, which has been fighting a brutal war against the Wagner-allied Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia for the past 10 months.
The Ukrainian military operation in the heart of Africa would offer further tangible proof of a statement made by military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov in May 2023: that Kyiv “will eliminate all Russian war criminals in the world, no matter where they are.”
Last September, when CNN reported on Ukrainian involvement in drone strikes against the RSF, Budanov indirectly confirmed the article by referring to the quote. Also in September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he had met Sudan’s junta leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.
“We discussed our common security challenges, in particular the activities of illegal armed groups financed by Russia,” Zelensky said. At the time, Forbes magazine attributed several acts of sabotage against the RSF to Ukraine — including in Khartoum, which is 80% controlled by the militia.
Russia’s long presence in Africa
For Ukraine, Sudan is not only relevant as an urgently needed signal of strength against Russia. Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia has responded to Western sanctions by plundering gold in Sudan, the third largest producer in Africa. Until the start of the Sudan war last April, the Kremlin supplied both the army and the RSF with weapons and smuggled an estimated 30 tons of gold out of the country every year — roughly the same amount as Sudan officially exports.
Wagner is now firmly on the side of the RSF, which continues to control the most profitable mines in the west of the country. According to diplomatic circles, the gold is being brought to Russia via the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the RSF’s most important ally. The Gulf state denies this.
Russia has more than a dozen new military partnerships, with 26% of official arms deliveries to African states.
Kyiv was shocked to discover the Kremlin’s deep influence in Africa after the start of the Ukraine war in February 2022. Around half of all African countries abstained from voting on UN resolutions against Russia. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the close relations from the Cold War era had not cooled as much as generally assumed.
In addition, Russia has established more than a dozen new military partnerships over the past decade and is the market leader on the continent, accounting for 26% of official arms deliveries to African states. This is particularly true for the sanctioned states in the “coup belt” — from Guinea in the west to Sudan in the east, the middle of Africa is ruled by the military throughout. If you add illegally sold weapons, Russia’s dominance is probably even stronger than we can account for.
Ukraine cannot keep up with Russia in terms of “soft power” either. It only has embassies in eleven of the 54 African countries — Russia, on the other hand, has embassies in 47. The Kremlin has recently invested in cultural centers and expanded scholarship programs. In many places, the political elite on the continent is as old as the hills, and many of them studied in the Soviet Union or were trained there for the liberation struggle.
Are Ukraine successes only speculation?
The latest reports of Ukrainian successes against Wagner cannot be substantiated independently.
Russian-born military consultant Andrej Liachow told Die Welt that Wagner withdrew all forces from the country shortly after the start of the war in Sudan — information that the leadership of the mercenary force shared with him. But the head of a Sudanese human rights organization with direct links to the RSF, who did not wish to be identified by name, confirmed the presence of Russians at least in Darfur, which is controlled by the RSF.
Hager Ali from the Hamburg-based German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) also has her doubts: “Previous reports of Ukrainian drone operations against Wagner in Sudan could ultimately not be authenticated beyond doubt either,” she says. Such Ukrainian operations in Sudan have so far been “little more than speculation.”
Multiple photos of such operations have so far been published by the Kyiv Post, which in turn refers to Ukrainian military intelligence. But the Russian state news agency RIA also wrote about possible such activities last August. “Ukrainian militants prepared by the British MI6,” RIA reports, are about to set out “to counteract the development of cooperation between Africa and Russia.”
Ukrainian Special Forces Interrogate Alleged Wagner Mercenaries in Sudan
Kyiv Post sources in Ukraine’s special services provided an exclusive video that shows elements of Ukrainian special forces interrogating captured Wagner Mercenaries in Sudan.
Monopoly under threat
Wagner is facing more resistance in the region. Yet the company seemingly received permission from Russian President Vladimir Putin to continue its African business following its attempted insurrection last year, and the subsequent death of its boss Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Its the heart of Wagner’s African business
So far, their strongest presence has been in the Central African Republic. Over 1,000 mercenaries are stationed there to mine diamonds and to protect President Faustin-Archange Touadéra. The elaborately-constructed infrastructure — which includes a training center — is considered the heart of Wagner’s African business.
A few months ago, however, the news website Africa Intelligence reported that Touadéra had signed a framework agreement with the U.S. military company Bancroft in order to diversify its security arrangements. The company, which already has experience in Somalia, has since confirmed “talks” to this effect.
Despite the uncertainty, it’s hard to deny that the Kremlin is watching the impending loss of its monopoly in this dirty business with a fair share of trepidation.
