-Analysis-
PARIS — It’s always risky to try to predict the future, especially when, in less than three weeks, a totally unpredictable president will take up residence in the White House. But that shouldn’t prevent us from reflecting on the scenarios of this coming year, which will undoubtedly be decisive for the new global balance of power.
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The main unknown is indeed incoming U.S. President Donald Trump, who arrives with his ideological options, but also a transactional temperament that should not be underestimated and may hold surprises — like his unlikely dialogue with the young North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un during his first term.
There will be three main issues on his desk when he arrives. And in fact, he’s already meddling with them as President Joe Biden is prematurely overshadowed. The issues are obvious: the war in Ukraine, the multiple crises in the Middle East and the relationship with the rival superpower China. They are the defining issues of the moment and, in China’s case, of the 21st century.
On these three main issues, Trump will have decisions to make, and quickly.
First, Ukraine
Let’s take them in order: first, Ukraine. Trump is already negotiating with Russia behind the scenes, and it’s not going as well as expected. A telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin scheduled for this week has even been cancelled. The candidate’s much-quoted boast of resolving the war in 24 hours is already outdated, even if Trump still hopes to end the war in 2025.
The most complex issue is Iran.
Putin is setting the bar very high in his negotiating positions; too high even for a man like Trump, who has little sympathy for the Ukrainian cause, but who cannot lose face. Trump has already announced that if Russia refuses to negotiate, he will support Ukraine militarily even more than has been the case.
We could therefore head toward a paradox in 2025: a Trump administration that supports the Ukrainian war effort more than Biden, in order to get Putin to lower his demands.
Dilemmas with Iran and China
The most complex issue for Trump is Iran. His friend Benjamin Netanyahu is urging him to give the green light to attack Iran’s nuclear program, which the Biden administration refused to do. While the Israeli prime minister does as he pleases in Gaza, he cannot act without the Americans against Iran.
The Chinese will want to test Trump.
Trump is fiercely opposed to the Iranian regime and doesn’t want to see Iran acquire nuclear weapons during his term. But he is also reluctant to get involved in a war. This will be his most difficult decision, and soon.
He faces the same dilemma with China; Trump’s hostility to the Chinese regime is well known, and it will apply maximum pressure through tariffs and technological sanctions. But if there is a risk of a war in Taiwan or the China Sea, what will he do? The Chinese will want to test him.
What about Europe?
The big absentee from all these debates is Europe, confronted in 2025 with its loss of substance, its gradual “provincialization” in a world of power relations. The French political crisis is contributing in its own way to this, by undermining the influence of a central country, as is the weakening of Germany.
For Europe, the choice is simple: Act or suffer, especially with an American president named Donald Trump, who won’t be doing us any favors.
