PARIS — It was predictable: the tariff showdown launched by U.S. President Donald Trump is reaching its most dramatic escalation with China. And since we’re talking about the two superpowers of the 21st century, the trade war is taking the form of a geostrategic rivalry — with all the risks that come with that.
Beijing was the first to hit back after Trump imposed an additional 34% tariff on Chinese goods. In less than 24 hours, China responded in kind: a 34% hike on all American products entering its territory. Trump, in turn, chose to up the ante — threatening Monday to slap an extra 50% in tariffs on China if Beijing doesn’t roll back its retaliation by the end of Tuesday.
We’re not talking about a minor issue here — last year, China exported $439 billion worth of goods to the United States, three times more than the $143 billion the U.S. exported to China. What’s at stake isn’t just massive sums of money, but essential goods that fuel both economies, including strategic minerals. In short, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
China’s response and resilience
It’s hard to imagine China giving in to Donald Trump’s ultimatum. In fact, Beijing vowed Tuesday morning to “fight until the end.” Both sides are playing for credibility in this standoff. The Chinese Communist Party cannot afford to appear as though it’s being dictated to; it’s a matter of the stature of its leader, Xi Jinping, both within China and on the global stage, where Beijing is positioning itself as an alternative to the United States.
In recent days, China’s political leadership has crafted an entire narrative aimed at its population. Monday morning’s editorial in the People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Communist Party, which sets the tone for the entire country, sought to reassure the public. “The sky will not fall on us,” it wrote, using its signature flowery language.
The Party notes that the share of products shipped to the United States has fallen from 19% to just over 14% of China’s total exports between 2018 and 2024. It also cleverly points out that some of the components or minerals imported by the U.S. from China cannot be easily replaced on the international market.
Above all, China wants to appear reasonable
The People’s Daily writes that the Party was prepared for the tariff showdown, and declared that China will navigate it with confidence. “We are strong and resilient,” it writes.
The global impact and what’s next
In fact, this confidence is a façade meant to prevent panic among the public. The proof lies in the ruthless censorship directed at any criticism of China’s government strategy. A Chinese economist who had criticized Beijing’s retaliation, calling it as “stupid” as the U.S. measure, saw his research center immediately shut down by the authorities, and his posts quickly erased. This is not a sign of confidence.
Xi Jinping has been anticipating this predictable confrontation for weeks. He gathered China’s private sector, including the famous internet titan Jack Ma, who emerged from his purgatory, to unite in the face of the challenge. Additionally, he has injected significant amounts of money to stimulate domestic demand.
Above all, China wants to appear reasonable in the face of an erratic American president, sending a message to the rest of the world, especially to Europeans who share Beijing’s concerns.
In fact, within this crisis, there is clearly a political opportunity for China, as long as it can withstand the economic pressure and, most importantly, not yield to Donald Trump’s demands.
