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Geopolitics

The World Needs A Strong France-Germany Alliance More Than Ever

In a time of Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping, Europe represents a democratic ideal alone—respectful of both humanity and the planet. And Europe needs a revival of the Berlin-Paris alliance to make it possible.

Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel, Europe's power couple
Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel, Europe's power couple
Dominique Moisi

-Analysis-

PARIS — On paper, the ritual was faithfully respected. The Chancellor's fourth term begins as it should, with a mandatory first foreign visit to Paris. And this time, the conditions for a relaunch of the Franco-German alliance do indeed seem auspicious. A semblance of balance has been restored between Berlin and Paris: Germany still reigning economically, while France returns to the world stage, driven by the energy and charisma of their new young president. To put it in sports terms, Germany and France are back on the same playing field.

Our cautious optimism for the state of the alliance also rests on the worsening condition of the international and regional situation. In the time of Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping, and the rise of European populism — from Hungary to Poland, to Italy — there appears to be no other choice than to turn to Germany and France.

"Europe is no longer a choice, as it might have been two years ago. It is a historical necessity," to quote one of the last living witnesses and great actors in the European Project, former French diplomat Georges Berthoin. He had the privilege of working alongside Jean Monnet and Robert Schuman on the founding of the continental union. Europe as a united continent is able to set limits for Putin's Russia, to propose and defend an alternative project from that of Xi Jinping of China, and to represent a liberal democracy, respectful of both humanity, and the planet.

Paradoxically, today, non-Europeans are without a doubt more open to hearing this message than many Europeans themselves. Because the misunderstanding may begin in the very heart of the European duo itself: the Franco-German couple. Macron's France has an ambitious and legitimate European recovery project, from the strengthening of the single-currency Eurozone. Is Merkel's Germany ready to join this French Project?

"Europe is no longer a choice"

I was in Frankfurt last week, where my German interlocutors were far from convinced. I put forward a classic argument: at the beginning of the fourth term, Angela Merkel has nothing to lose. What counts for her now, is her legacy. Will she be perceived as the Chancellor who held her own, and who then showed vision and courage in rallying behind the French project? Another scenario was opposed by many of my German counterparts, including some close to Merkel. "The Chancellor is Lutheran, daughter of a Pastor, she has promised before God to defend her office and the responsibilities that come with it. She is not ready to cede an ounce of her powers in favor of an integration process that she does not wholly believe."

A man that she had helped to "politically kill," former Chancellor Helmut Kohl knew the War, and had accepted to sacrifice the German mark on the altar of European peace. Other times, other priorities. Germany's European passion has dried up, as the depth of its past resurfaced with hints of xenophobia and extremism. History will tell you which of these two interpretations of Germany's intentions, positive or more prudent, is the right one.

What is certain, in such a context of uncertainty, is that Europe cannot resolve and strengthen the Eurozone powered solely by the Franco-German tandem. As legitimate and central as this priority is, it cannot let us forget an essential principle: the growing separation between the citizens, and the European dream. It is a separation driven more by a negative judgment that people bear on the performance of Europe than on its essence itself.

Putin's Russia is testing all of Europe.

For the first time in one of the great founding countries of the European project, populists are at the doorstep of power in Italy. And they are particularly hard populists, in the case of the Matteo Salvini's League party. One of the major reasons for the collapse of classical parties was, of course, the mass influx of refugees along the country's coastline. Regarding this sensitive topic, Italians felt that there was not too much, but not enough Europe. The countries of the Union, who legitimately worry about the Italian elections are paying the price for their corrosive mixture of selfishness and indifference.

If Europe really wants to revive itself, it could only do so through these conditions of solidarity and rigidity. These principles are perfectly applicable today in the crisis shaking relations between Britain and Russia, regardless of the fact that the United Kingdom has chosen to leave the European Union by way of the Brexit referendum. If London can prove that Moscow was behind the chemical attack that took place several days ago in the city of Salisbury, the only dignified and responsible response is to support it in full. Putin's Russia is testing all of Europe.

A firm stance must also apply to all those in the European Union who are deliberately violating the values that structure our "club of liberal democracies." They cannot at the same time benefit from the economic assistance of the richest, while operating outside its system of values. Neither passivity nor indifference are options.

All of this must happen without the United States. At a time of rising despotism and populism, Europe must stand alongside Germany and France.

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Geopolitics

New Probe Finds Pro-Bolsonaro Fake News Dominated Social Media Through Campaign

Ahead of Brazil's national elections Sunday, the most interacted-with posts on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Telegram and WhatsApp contradict trustworthy information about the public’s voting intentions.

Jair Bolsonaro bogus claims perform well online

Cris Faga/ZUMA
Laura Scofield and Matheus Santino

SÂO PAULO — If you only got your news from social media, you might be mistaken for thinking that Jair Bolsonaro is leading the polls for Brazil’s upcoming presidential elections, which will take place this Sunday. Such a view flies in the face of what most of the polling institutes registered with the Superior Electoral Court indicate.

An exclusive investigation by the Brazilian investigative journalism agency Agência Pública has revealed how the most interacted-with and shared posts in Brazil on social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, Telegram and WhatsApp share data and polls that suggest victory is certain for the incumbent Bolsonaro, as well as propagating conspiracy theories based on false allegations that research institutes carrying out polling have been bribed by Bolsonaro’s main rival, former president Luís Inácio Lula da Silva, or by his party, the Workers’ Party.

Agência Pública’s reporters analyzed the most-shared posts containing the phrase “pesquisa eleitoral” [electoral polls] in the period between the official start of the campaigning period, on August 16, to September 6. The analysis revealed that the most interacted-with and shared posts on social media spread false information or predicted victory for Jair Bolsonaro.

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