-Analysis-
PARIS — One hundred days, and still no way out in sight. In the 100 days since the October 7 massacre led by Hamas, followed by massive retaliation from the Israeli army in Gaza, we’ve also seen the conflict undergo a slow but inexorable escalation across the Middle East region.
To mark this symbolic milestone, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu adopted a defiant tone Sunday: “No one will stop us,” he said, neither “The Hague,” a reference to the International Court of Justice, nor the “Axis of Resistance,” namely Iran and its regional allies.
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He could have added: “nor the United States…” In his posture of “alone against the rest of the world,” Netanyahu is also clearly resisting pressure from his friend and ally, U.S. President Joe Biden.
As a result, despite repeated requests from the Americans, the war continues unabated in Gaza, a veritable humanitarian disaster for some two million Palestinians: 23,000 dead, including thousands of children, 85% displaced persons, the onset of famine, and insufficient humanitarian aid.
Philippe Lazzarini, the Swiss head of UNWRA, the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees said this war is “staining our shared humanity.”
Has Israel achieved its goals?
Hunting for Sinwar
It all depends on how those goals are defined. The Israeli army has destroyed Hamas’ infrastructure in northern Gaza, although the crowded south is harder to tackle.
What Hamas loses militarily, it may well gain politically among the Palestinians, particularly in the West Bank.
But Hamas leaders are still being hunted down, in particular Yahya Sinwar, accused of being the mastermind of the October 7 attack. An important leader of the Palestinian Islamist movement was killed in a targeted shooting in Beirut. However, what Hamas loses militarily, it may well gain politically among the Palestinians, particularly in the West Bank.
Israel promises months more of war, but will there be enough time? The Americans have been pleading for weeks for a change in Israeli strategy to spare civilians. Still, they have discovered how little influence they have over an Israeli coalition that is markedly far-right.
But until when? The continuation of war in Gaza means that regional escalation continues, despite U.S. efforts to contain it. On the northern front with Hezbollah, and most of all in the Red Sea with the Houthis of Yemen, each day extends the scale of the conflict.
American image
Can widespread conflict be avoided? This remains the objective of the United States, even if the bombardment of Houthi installations in Yemen over the past three days does not bode well for détente. It should be noted that France, unlike the UK, has not taken part in these operations, preferring a “defensive” posture.
The Houthi actions in the Red Sea have certainly disrupted maritime traffic, diverting 2,000 cargo ships via the Cape of Good Hope. Still, the Americans, by entering this war, have only reinforced their image as protectors of Israel. While they claim to demand protection of civilians in Gaza, they are caught in a serious contradiction exacerbated by Iran and its allies.
How to get out of it? The priority should be to stop the war in Gaza, free the hostages, and save the Palestinian civilians from collective punishment.
But the world is singularly powerless to impose this, and too fragmented to collectively demand it. On the 101st day of the war, there is no end in sight.
