“That Boy” — What Lebanon’s Slain Prime Minister Got Right About Bashar Al-Assad

-OpEd-

CAIRO — Months before his death in 1999, Syrian President Hafez al-Assad urged Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, then among the region’s most influential political leaders, to open a line of communication with his son and heir to the presidency, Bashar al-Assad.

Hariri (who was later assassinated in a car bombing in February 2005) welcomed communications with the young man and traveled to Damascus with a small number of companions. Among them was his advisor Bassem al-Sabaa, who recounts details of this meeting in a book, chapters of which have been published in Asharq al-Awsat newspaper.

Hariri arrived on the outskirts of Damascus and met with Assad Jr. in a small villa overlooking the capital from Mount Qasioun. At the end of the meeting, Hariri silently got into his Mercedes. His silence was only broken by al-Sabaa’s question about the details of the meeting.

“After this meeting, I am not afraid about Lebanon…We can pull our own thorns out ourselves. I am afraid for Syria,” Hariri said. When his advisor asked why, the prime minister answered “ After Hafez Assad, Syria will be ruled by that boy. May Allah help Syria.” Then he moved his car seat back to sleep.

​Inexperienced dictator

Hariri’s fear came true 25 years after this meeting: Now Assad’s regime has fallen, and Syria, which he inherited, has been torn apart under his watch. Assad’s father brought him to power by chance. Empowered by foreign actors, he did not respect his people; he killed and displaced them.

Assad the dictator did not have his father’s shrewdness and cunning. He chose his own interests. He chose the war that he ignited, and that burned his hands. That war killed more than 380,000 Syrians, displaced millions, and destroyed the country’s infrastructure.

The boy, as Hariri called him, inherited from his father one of the most brutal and ruthless dictatorships.

Under Assad’s rule, Syria entered an era similar to the era of the Taifa Kings, pushing the country into the stage of statelets: A Kurdish state with self-rule in the northeast; and another one controlled by armed opposition groups and militias that now controls Damascus and the largest cities. Turkey is also expanding its presence in these areas. There is also the Alawites in the northwestern coast, ISIS in the desert and Israel advancing in the Golan Heights.

This is how Syria ended. The boy, as Hariri called him, inherited from his father one of the most brutal and ruthless dictatorships; the Baathist country, which was ruled by intelligence, prisons, bullets, iron and airplanes. He ruled the country for more than 24 years. But he did not realize that what worked in the final decades of the 20th century would not work in the first decades of the 21st century.

​Hafez’s legacy

The father’s legacy protected his son from violent fluctuations. As he assumed power at the beginning of the 21st century, the region has been seething and changing its cards. The other Baathist leader in Iraq, Saddam Hussein, fell, and Baghdad entered its long coma in 2003, opening the door to its Iranian neighbor.

In Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has grown stronger, reviving the Sanjak of Alexandretta and increasing the desire to restore the Ottoman legacy.

Meanwhile, Syria was growing weaker; there was nothing new except dictatorship, corruption, imprisonment, suppression of the opposition and impoverishment. The people were required to believe the propaganda, look at the statues, and glorify the Baath party and its eternity, which is meaningless.

Assad chose bullets to answer bare chests.

In 2011, the legacy collapsed under the blows. Syria was not the same as it was in 2000 or even 2010, and the region was not the same. The young generations who inherited the injustices, oppression, fighters and slaughterhouses, and the events of Hama, grow up. They looked at what was happening in the Arab capitals.

The Arab Spring at the time was fruitful in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Demonstrations erupted, demanding freedom, seeking justice, rejecting the rampant corruption ruling this country, and dreaming of prosperity. The most optimistic of the peaceful revolutionaries did not expect what happened in Cairo or in Tunis to happen in Syria: the fall of the regime. They only dreamed that the pressure would ease, that they would be allowed to breathe.

Assad, however, didn’t read the message. He chose bullets to answer bare chests. It was no secret that the structures in Syria are different from those in Egypt and Tunisia. They resembled Gaddafi’s Libya somewhat, yes, but the scene was much more complex.

The fog of war

Assad refused to listen to the voice of reason and wisdom. He refused to unite his people with their various sects and affiliations, draft a new constitution and create a modern system with no dictators and corruption. He was stubborn. He underestimated his people and their peaceful opposition. He met peaceful protesters with brutal force, and the opposition took up arms.

Then the massacres began. Call it what you want: civil war or armed revolution. The fog came — and more fog, killing, massacres, killing on the basis of religion and identity, and imprisonment and chemical attacks and explosive barrels, propaganda and counter-propaganda. Assad did not pay attention to the collapse of his control over the Turkish border, where thousands of fighters poured into his country, carrying the Sunni banner against the Alawite tyrant.

Fakhri Karim, the chief advisor to former Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, said he had warned Assad about the danger of armed fighters moving into Iraq and the threats this posed to both Iraq and possibly Syria. And that is what happened.

The fighters returned to Syria, and some of them are now taking over power: HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani deflected from ISIS and established Jabhat al-Nusra, which later became Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham. They are now celebrating in Umayyad Square in Damascus.

Assad paid the price. The fighters entered Syria from all directions and the war developed into a regional conflict, with forces affiliated with Turkey and other Kurdish forces protected by the United States.

Assad isolated

As in 2011, the Middle East is on the verge of a new eruption, following the Oct. 7 Hamas attack and Israel’s subsequent wars against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran has shouted loudly, and Houthi missiles targeted vessels. Yet Assad’s regime was absent — only receiving Israeli strikes. It only condemned and denounced, reserving, as usual, the right to respond.

Syria’s two “religious” allies, Iran and Hezbollah, have been removed from the equation. And Russia and Putin are preoccupied by the Ukrainian war and the West’s support for it. There was no interest in supporting a regime that no longer offered new benefits.

Assad fell into the abyss after living for many years on the edge.

Assad had no ally; he was under threat and ignored the armed opposition forces and al-Golani. His regime received two threats: one from Israel to “not play with fire” — as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told him; and a second from Turkey — when Erdogan offered to meet with Assad and did not receive a positive response.

Assad fell into the abyss after living for many years on the edge. After 24 years of Bashar’s rule, 29 years of his father’s rule — and the Baath state before them — everything fell in 10 days: Idlib, Aleppo, Hama, Homs, then Damascus and Bashar’s palace. Then the revolutionaries, displaced people, fugitives, prisoners, forces and militias celebrated the fall of the regime.

Hariri’s prophecy has come true — even if it is late. His fear for Syria was real. In the end, there was legendary rejoicing over his downfall.