-Analysis-
CAIRO — Sudan‘s conflict has become more complicated in recent weeks. As the war between the military and the notorious paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) approaches its two-year mark, there is no sign of a peaceful solution or military resolution on the horizon.
Amid the war chaos, both sides were working to enforce their political positions. The RSF and its allies seek to establish a parallel government in the areas they control, even though they have lost significant swaths of territory in the last three months, including strategic areas in Khartoum.
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The military, meanwhile, was seeking to amend the constitutional document to form a new government in the eastern city of Port Sudan, the interim seat of the government.
These developments have raised concerns that Sudan will slide into a stalemate, with two administrations running the country, like Libya and Yemen, both of which have two competing governments.
Like Libya and Yemen
“The threat of Libya and Yemen surrounds Sudan if the war continues without either party being able to deliver a decisive victory,” said Amr el-Shobaki, advisor to the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, adding that the division has morphed into a regional and tribal one.
He said that armed groups’ continued control of certain areas establishes a new reality on the ground that is difficult to bypass, like the situation in Libya. There, he said, interest networks — of the military and their allies — enforced the division within the state’s institutions to the point that efforts to unify these institutions appear impossible.
In both Libya and Yemen, Arab and international initiatives have failed to settle the conflicts in both counties, establish a unified government and hold elections in all territories. That is also the case in Sudan. Before the war, diplomatic efforts, led by the United States and Saudi Arabia, failed to avert the bloody confrontation between the military and the RSF. They failed to establish a ceasefire.
RSF controls four of the five provinces in Darfur.
El-Shoubaki, however, argued that it will be difficult for a government in RSF-controlled areas to gain international recognition or legitimacy given the RSF has been long accused of committing war crimes in Darfur over the past two decades.
If established, this government will be a fait accompli in the RSF-controlled areas and its existence will depend on the military development on the ground, he said. Many prominent Arab tribes in Darfur side with the RSF, most notably the Rizeigat tribe from which Hemeti hails. Some rebel factions also allied themselves with the RSF, which controls four of the five provinces in Darfur.
Yet main rebel groups that signed the Juba Peace Agreement in 2020 with the government have allied themselves with the military. The rebels are the backbone of the military-led force that defended the strategic city of el-Fasher in Darfur against more than a year of RSF attacks.
Military setbacks persist
In recent months the RSF suffered multiple setbacks as the military regained control of strategic areas in Khartoum and its sister cities of Omdurman and Khartoum North (or Khartoum Bahri). The military also retook the city of Wad Medani, the provincial capital of Gezira prince, as well as the al-Jili, the country’s largest oil refinery.
Yet Nour El-Din Salah El-Din, the leader of the National Current political group, said “the recent military developments are not enough to ward off the threat of division.” He said in an interview that there are growing concerns that the RSF will attack vital facilities and infrastructure such as its drone attack on the strategic Merowe Dam in the country’s north.
He said the military force is not the solution to end the conflict, warning it could prolong the war, especially with the army’s perception that popular support encourages the military to continue the fighting. The RSF also could mobilize more forces to seize el-Fasher, he said.
RSF stumbles
Military chief Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan has said the Sudanese people reject negotiations with the RSF, and attempted to suggest that the crisis has become with the people who reject the RSF. “The war in Sudan will not stop until the Rapid Support Militia withdraws from civilian areas and some countries cease its military and political support to the militia,” Burhan said in a recent speech.
Both sides realize that the majority of Sudanese who support civilian rule are not satisfied with them.
Salah El-Din said the RSF will attempt to “establish a new reality on the ground by finding a political incubator — the government which the RSF attempts to establish — to ensure that it is a political actor with whom negotiations and understanding must be held.” He said that the military advances will likely fail RSF efforts to establish their own government. Another major factor is that the RSF failed to provide basic services to the local population in the areas they have controlled since the start of the war.
The military, meanwhile, is seeking to amend the constitutional document governing the country, after more than three years of freezing some of its provisions following the 2021 military coup. The military wants to establish a power-sharing authority with rebel groups and political groups that supported the military in its war against the RSF.
Political analyst Abdel Wahid Ibrahim said neighboring countries have grown concerned about the potential split of Sudan into two or three countries, so they’re pushing against the two rival administrations’ scenario. “Basically both sides realize that the majority of Sudanese who support civilian rule are not satisfied with them,” he said. “Each of them is trying to impose a fait accompli policy in areas it controls by force.”
