-Analysis-
WARSAW — Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk delivered a momentous speech last Friday before the Sejm, the lower house of Parliament. Slated to cover national security, the remarks quickly turned to a topic previously taboo: “We are talking seriously with the French about the idea of a nuclear umbrella,” Tusk said. “It is time to look more boldly at the most modern battlefield technologies. Conventional means are no longer enough. We must reach for the most modern solutions, including those related to nuclear weapons.”
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The words of the Prime Minister mark a historic change for the country. Because finally, critical issues – from the point of view of national security – are being discussed seriously, openly and in the right place. Still, the basic problem remains unchanged: Poland will not have its own nuclear arsenal, but will be dependent on allies.
But is that enough?
Nuclear sharing and NATO
Building a nuclear weapon of our own would require access to fissile materials and the appropriate technology. It would require huge amounts of money, scientific support and enough specialists who would have to be educated in Poland. Ultimately, it would also require violating the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, which could result in international sanctions.
At the end of the day, a Polish atomic bomb is a pipe dream.
For years, the Americans have been reluctant to include Poland in the “Nuclear Sharing” program, which includes Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Turkey. The Americans store their charges in these countries, and their use is only possible with the consent of the United States.
Considering President Donald Trump’s policy of reluctance towards NATO, the chances of Poland joining the Nuclear Sharing program are now slim.
Moscow and Minsk threats
France, the only nuclear power in the European Union, is offering — for now — to Germany the possibility of relocating Rafale fighters carrying ASMP-A cruise missiles with a 300-kt warhead.
These aircraft could also be stationed in Poland. However, the decision to use them would be made in the Elysee presidential Palace in Paris, not in Warsaw. We will have to accept such a decision-making mechanism.
Nuclear deterrence is a priority, especially since Russia has established a similar warehouse in Belarus, in addition to the nuclear warhead storage facility in the Königsberg region. Europe is in the process of a major rearmament, and the expansion of the nuclear arsenals of France and Britain, which is outside the EU. It should be well understood that the deployment of part of this arsenal on the eastern flank should be an important element of this process.
Moscow reacted right away with hyperbole and hysteria to President Emmanuel Macron’s proposal to include the EU under the French nuclear umbrella. That is one clear sign that it’s the right path.
