Nauru, Maldives: When Tiny Islands Weigh On The Biggest Geopolitical Battle

-Analysis-

PARIS — They are confetti on a global scale, yet these islands are at the heart of the new Cold War that has taken shape in Asia.

The first one, Nauru, in the South Pacific, has a population of just over 10,000 people on 21 square kilometers. On January 15, Nauru broke diplomatic relations with Taiwan favoring the People’s Republic of China.

The Taipei government was not mistaken: it saw Chinese retaliation after the January 13 presidential election of William Lai, the toughest candidate against China. Beijing has pulled out the chequebook according to a Taiwanese official.

It’s an old-fashioned method. Only 12 UN member states still recognize Taiwan, with little diplomatic weight except for the Vatican. Beijing wants to isolate as much as possible the island, that refuses reunification.

Maneuvering in the South Pacific

It’s a setback, but not a blow for Taiwan, which knows it has already lost this diplomatic battle. Taipei attaches much more importance to the visit, as of January 14, of a delegation of former American officials, both Democrats and Republicans, who have come to express Washington’s support.

Taiwan has also been receptive to congratulatory messages from Western countries, including France, even though the Quai d’Orsay communiqué does not mention the name of the election winner or even his title of President. But the mere fact of welcoming a democratic process on the island is seen as a breach in the political isolation sought by Beijing.

The Nauru affair is also part of the major maneuvering that has been going on for months in the South Pacific. Beijing and Washington are courting the smaller islands: China is offering security cooperation, the United States is reopening embassies and reviving dormant cooperation.

Chinese power in the Indian Ocean

The second case concerns the Maldives, a paradisiacal archipelago of a thousand islands in the Indian Ocean, with a population of almost 400,000. Situated just 600 kilometers off the Indian coasts, the Maldives are tossed between China and India, the two rival Asian giants.

On January 14, having just returned from an official visit to Beijing, the new president of the Maldives, Mohammed Muizzu, ordered the Indian troops stationed on his territory to leave within two months. These 70 or so men – it’s not much – have two helicopters and are involved in medical evacuations between the islands. But Mohammed Muizzu had campaigned on the theme of “India out”, and is leaning towards Beijing.

This crisis is coupled with a quarrel that seems ridiculous at first sight: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had his photo taken on a deckchair on an Indian beach, encouraging Indians to stay at home instead of vacationing in the Maldives. This angered the archipelago’s leaders: tourism is their main source of income.

The Cold War may take on the appearance of a comedy, but the stakes behind it are always geopolitical: they are, in fact, those of the place of Chinese power in the 21st century