Far Right Frenemies? Le Pen And Meloni Jostle For European Leadership

-Analysis-

TURIN — Giorgia Meloni can consider herself satisfied with the results of this past Sunday’s first round of the French elections: her arch-nemesis Emmanuel Macron, the embodiment of a European elite out of touch with what people need, has emerged as the clear loser.

Meloni was betting on this result to reinforce her position in Europe. And before the vote she made sure that her European Union coalition, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), stayed together while also maintaining an ambiguous behavior — a specialty of the Italian prime minister — until she decided to abstain on the vote that once again chose Ursula von der Leyen as the leader of the European Commission. These tactics allow Meloni not to jeopardize her relations with the traditional right-wing in Europe, and beyond.

Nevertheless, Meloni should contain her joy at Le Pen’s impressive showing, which could turn into an outright victory on Sunday. It is said today, and in case of victory it will be said with even more emphasis, that this represents a victory for ‘The Sovereignist’ family, in all its forms — and that the only ones who failed to understand this are the technocrats in Brussels.

And yet, the situation is more complex for several key reasons.

Challenged from the inside

The first is that Meloni now has an internal challenger. There are now two underdogs: if we simplify them a bit, their stories are very similar (two female leaders, two “redemptions” of outcast ideologies, two burdensome heritages to manage).

There is even some potential for conflict. Meloni’s leadership is now challenged from the right at the European level, and she will probably have to deal with the consequences of a far-right victory in France, which will likely spook international markets and expose fragile economies, including Italy’s.

Meloni thinks that her strength derives from the movement she belongs to.

So even while they both come from the same ideological family, it is not clear whether Le Pen’s victory will be an advantage for the Italian prime minister.

And this leads us to the second complicating factor. At the EU level, Meloni has so far acted as the leader of a European party more than as the head of government of a founding member-state that looks out for its “national interest” above all.

The Italian prime minister has gambled on the fact that the traditional elite will, sooner or later, have to face her right-wing family. In this context, as a political leader, she has stayed anchored to her ideology, while also interacting with allies and adversaries.

Meloni thinks that her strength derives from the movement she belongs to, and for this reason she refuses to look beyond it — also, because doing so would be perceived as betrayal.

The dilemma

Le Pen’s impending victory brings into focus precisely this very political crossroads at which Giorgia Meloni finds herself: Italy or the global movement of nationalist-populists? She now has to choose whether to be the leader of a country or the leader of a sort of federation of parties in competition with each other.

If she doesn’t free herself from this idea of challenging the establishment from the right, she risks an impasse: Le Pen is stronger as party leader, while Meloni is also exposed to fellow right-wing Italian leader Matteo Salvini, who is in regular touch with Le Pen as their respective parties belongs to the same legislative group at the EU level. And Salvini will also try to get closer to Donald Trump, who may be returning to the White House in November.

If Meloni instead chooses Italy, renouncing her more global ambitions, drawing her authority from her role as prime minister, she will have an easier relationship with Le Pen, who will also be busy thinking about France first. After all, since there’s no federal Europe, the new dynaic will start specifically in the national interest, a concept that is dear to both of their hearts.