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Geopolitics

Oil Dependence: Three Wars, One Lesson

Ukraine, Israel, Azerbaijan: the three conflicts highlight energy vulnerability.

Grey smoke rises out of an oil refinery in a residential neighborhood

An oil tanker caught on fire after a drone strike in the occupied Crimean city of Sevastopol

TASS/ZUMA
Lucie Robequain

-Analysis-

PARISUkraine, Israel, Azerbaijan: the three conflicts brewing on Europe's borders confirm, each in a unique way, the risk we continue to face by depending so heavily on hydrocarbons and their producers, who have used them as a prime geopolitical tool.

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After suffering so much from renouncing Russian gas, Europe must now be concerned about the energy it is importing from Azerbaijan — a country which has just invaded part of Armenia — and the sharp price hikes caused by the recent terror and violence in the Middle East.


These crises have a cost that our governments could not anticipate, and cannot afford. After spending billions of euros to protect the from the consequences of the war in Ukraine and price increases at the pump, financial forecasters in France had hoped to return to a semblance of normality next year. The volatility of the oil and gas markets in recent days suggests the opposite.

As long as Iran is found guilty of having supported Hamas in its terrorist attack, the sanctions which had recently been eased will be tightened, leading to a fall in its oil exports.

Saudi Arabia, for its part, was hoping for a peace deal with Israel that the United States can no longer promise in a war-torn Middle East. It could retaliate by further reducing energy production, thus pushing global oil prices to new heights.

An oil rig silhouette at dusk  in an arid region, with the sun setting in the background

BAKU - An old oil rig near Azerbaijan's capital city

TASS / ZUMA

Energy sovereignty

There are two possible responses to this: the first is to favor our safest suppliers, who have the advantage of also being major democracies, such as the United States and Norway.

The second solution is to accelerate our energy conversion and reestablish European sovereignty.

But their hydrocarbons are significantly more expensive than those coming from Russia and the Middle East. And despite the hopes that are being reborn in shale gas, illustrated by Exxon's takeover of Pioneer at a high price, their production cannot supply the entire world market.

The second solution is to accelerate our energy conversion and reestablish European sovereignty. We are far from getting there. France, which promised to reduce its consumption of fossil fuels by 5% each year, cannot follow through on its targets: it increased by another 3% last year.

And while conflict ravages many corners of the globe, involving oil producers in one way or another, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz continues to wonder whether nuclear power really has its place in a Europe which intends to regain control of its destiny. How many more wars will it take to persuade him?

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Society

Violence Against Women, The Patriarchy And Responsibility Of The Good Men Too

The femicide of Giulia Cecchettin has shaken Italy, and beyond. Argentine journalist Ignacio Pereyra looks at what lies behind femicides and why all men must take more responsibility.

photo of a young man holding a sign: Filippo isn't a monster, he's the healthy son of the patriarchy

A protester's sign referring to the alleged killer reads: Filippo isn't a monster, he's the healthy son of the patriarchy

Matteo Nardone/Pacific Press via ZUMA Press
Ignacio Pereyra

Updated Dec. 3, 2023 at 10:40 p.m.

-Essay-

ATHENS — Are you going to write about what happened in Italy?, Irene, my partner, asks me. I have no idea what she's talking about. She tells me: a case of femicide has shaken the country and has been causing a stir for two weeks.

As if the fact in itself were not enough, I ask what is different about this murder compared to the other 105 women murdered this year in Italy (or those that happen every day around the world).

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We are talking about a country where the expression "fai l'uomo" (be a man) abounds, with a society so prone to drama and tragedy and so fond of crime stories as few others, where the expression "crime of passion" is still mistakenly overused.

In this context, the sister of the victim reacted in an unexpected way for a country where femicide is not a crime recognized in the penal code, contrary to what happens, for example, in almost all of Latin America.

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