Why Tajiks Are Easy Prey For Islamic Jihadists

–Analysis–

Following the devastating attack in Moscow, several Tajiks are in custody in Russia as suspects. In early January, a suspected Tajik suicide bomber carried out an attack at the tomb of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, in the Iranian city of Kerman, killing almost 100 people. At the end of last year, Tajiks were arrested in Germany and Austria in connection with planned attacks on Cologne Cathedral and St. Stephen’s Cathedral in Vienna.

According to experts, Tajiks and their family members form a minority within the Central Asian terrorist group ISIS-Khorasan (ISPK) — an offshoot of the terrorist militia of the so-called Islamic State (ISIS) — which is believed to comprise up to 6,000 fighters. A few hundred fighters are said to have sworn allegiance to the group.

But their small number cannot hide the fact: for the terrorist organization, radical Islamic Tajiks are a kind of universal weapon.

Open access to Russia

Radicals from Tajikistan are easy to mobilize in the fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan, which ISIS-Khorasan regards as nationalist renegades who have abandoned jihad. Since the Taliban rulers — who are mostly ethnic Pashtuns — are cracking down on the Tajik minority in the country, the terrorist organization can rely on solidarity movements. In Iran, which is the major Shiite enemy of the Sunni ISIS, Tajiks can communicate with the locals. Their mother tongue, Tajik, is a variety of Farsi, Iran’s official language.

In addition, the Russian border is open to citizens of Tajikistan, who do not need a visa. They often have at least a basic command of the Russian language, as Russia is the largest destination for Tajik guest workers. Tajik Islamists often come to Europe as refugees — for example from Ukraine, like the men who were arrested in a nationwide raid last summer for planning an attack.

The group is also active in Ukraine itself: two years ago, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) uncovered an IS terror cell in Kyiv. From the Islamic State’s point of view, the Russian attack on Ukraine is a “punishment of infidels” who have “exported” their fighting to Islamic countries — a view expressed two years ago in the IS magazine al-Naba. Ukraine, for example, was portrayed as part of the “coalition of the willing” in the Iraq war.

Poorest former Soviet republic

The Islamist movement is so attractive to Tajiks in particular for a number of factors. With a population of just under 9.3 million, Tajikistan is one of the poorest countries in the world and the poorest successor state to the Soviet Union. Remittances from migrant workers accounted for almost a third of gross domestic product in 2022, and in some years the proportion was as high as 50%. The country’s population is young, with around half under the age of 25.

In Russia, the climate of discrimination against Tajiks contributes to radicalization.

There is hardly any work locally. Those who do not manage to go to Russia become easy prey for Islamists. In the mid-2010s, when the civil war began in Syria, ISIS was able to recruit dozens of young men in some places. Up to 100 men moved to Syria from the village of Chorkishlak, in northern Tajikistan. This dynamic continues despite the demise of the caliphate in Syria.

But even those who go to Russia to work are not immune to Islamist propaganda and recruitment attempts. Tajik guest workers are among the most discriminated groups there. On the labor and housing markets, they and other Central Asians are sometimes treated like second-class citizens. The climate of discrimination contributes to radicalization. In Russia in particular, young Tajiks are being targeted by ISIS propagandists, for example via the messaging platform Telegram.

Secular dictatorship repressing Islam

Another factor is the dictatorial regime of President Emomali Rahmon, who has ruled Tajikistan for more than 30 years. His secular dictatorship emerged victorious from the devastating civil war in the early 1990s. At that time, democratic opponents of the country’s post-communist elite fought side by side with Islamists and separatists against Rahmon.

Gradually, Rahmon built up a cult of personality and suppressed forms of political and religious life that were beyond state control. Rahmon closed Koran schools and banned children and young people from attending mosques.

In Tajikistan, repressive measures contributed to the radicalization of Muslims.

These repressive measures contributed to the radicalization of Muslims, who did not feel represented by Rahmon’s moderate understanding of Islam. The Rahmon regime suffered a severe blow in 2015, when Gulmurod Khalimov, a close confidant of the dictator, switched sides. The commander of the country’s special police forces went to Syria and became ISIS’s notorious “Minister of War.”

This betrayal led Rahmon to resort to even more radical measures — which in turn increased the hatred of radical Muslims towards the government in Dushanbe. ISIS groups repeatedly carry out terrorist attacks and fighters enter the country via the porous border with Afghanistan, which is almost 1,400 kilometers long. Nevertheless, Rahmon has so far managed to maintain control of the country, thanks in part to the presence of thousands of Russian soldiers.

For Islamists, this means that those who cannot make progress at home carry the jihad further into the world.