Geopolitics

Iran In Africa: How Ideology Undermined Economic Potential

Since 1979, Iran's presence on the African continent has been part of a push for ideological expansion and anti-Americanism, to the detriment of economic and political relations.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard holding a missile drill
Iran's Revolutionary Guard holding a missile drill
Sara Saïdi

-Analysis-

Relations between Iran and the African continent intensified under the regime of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last Shah, who held power for nearly four decades before being overthrown in 1979.

An ally of the West, and in the context of the Cold War, he focused toward the end of his reign on preventing the expansion of communism in a newly decolonized Africa. In doing so, he kindled relations with leaders in places such as Egypt, South Africa, Algeria and Morocco.

Iran, a country that had benefited from the first oil crisis, wanted to extend its influence, and so it also provided financial and economic support to Sudan, Somalia, Senegal, Ethiopia and Zaire. "But Africa was only one element of the Pahlavi regime's foreign policy and not a priority," says Clément Therme, a post-doctoral researcher at Sciences Po Paris and a specialist on Iran.

The Shah's ousting and the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran marked a turning point in relations between Tehran and the African continent. From the 1980s, the new regime sought to export its Islamic revolution.

The leadership thus began an expansionist policy combining Shia ideology and anti-imperialism. The Islamic Republic joined the movement of non-aligned nations and was seen as the defender of oppressed countries in the face of Western, especially American, domination.

In 1986, while Iran was at war with Iraq, Ali Khamenei, then president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, visited Africa for the first time, notably Mozambique and Angola, to discuss oil supplies, industrial cooperation and agricultural development. The visit was meant to assert Tehran's influence, but also garner support in the fight against Saddam Hussein.

According to Alhadji Bouba Nouhou, associate researcher at the Montesquieu Center for Political Research (CMRP) in Bordeaux and author of L'Iran et L'Afrique : une coopération à l"épreuve des faits, Iran was rapidly developing an economic policy aimed "at loosening the lock of the embargo" imposed by the United States since 1984 and especially since 1995.

Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani visited Africa in 1991 and again in 1996. His successor, Mohammad Khatami, returned in January 2005. Iran was targeting the West African market while maintaining good relations with South Africa.

Under the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005-2013), Iran leveraged its influence in Africa on development aid. As Nouhou writes, in March 2005, the country signed an agreement for $1.5 million in aid to the Ghanaian state budget.

Automobile assembly plants, oil supply, gas extraction, electricity, consumer goods: Iran was gradually increasing its trade with Africa and also developing military cooperation, particularly in the naval sector. The country was also spending large sums of money to build social and health infrastructures, notably through the Iranian Red Crescent Society.

Iran must find the gray areas.

In 2017, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif opened a hospital in Kampala, Uganda, partly financed by the Islamic Republic. According to Masoud Kamali Ardakani, former director general of Iran's Trade Promotion Organization (TPO) Office for Arabian and African Countries, trade between Iran and Africa reached a record $1.2 billion between 2017 and 2018.

But despite this growth, trade with Iran in 2018 represented only 0.12% of Africa's total trade with the world. Iranian exports amounted to just $600 million between 2018 and 2019.

Ahmadinejad shaking hands with Ghanaian President Mahama in 2013 — Photo: Xinhua via ZUMA Wire

In October 2020, the new director general of Iran's TPO Office of Arabian and African Countries, Farzad Piltan, said the organization would redefine its strategy to enable Iran to benefit from the advantages of the African market, without giving any details.

"The Iranian strategy in Africa is more political than based on economic rationality," says Clément Therme. "The economic strategy has limited success, except in South Africa, where relations are deeper."

Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute, says that to circumvent U.S. sanctions, Iran "must find the gray areas that are not closely monitored by the U.S. to conduct its transactions." He adds, however, that Iran's traditional market is Europe and, in recent years, East Asia, particularly China.

"Iran's African policy is a secondary project that is linked to a larger project: competition with the United States," Vatanka says.

Iran has not concealed this plan. In 2012, at the 16th Summit of the Non-Aligned Movement in Tehran, the Islamic Republic reaffirmed its right to a peaceful nuclear program. "When Mahmoud Ahmadinejad came to power, he hoped to find diplomatic allies to support him at the United Nations, but that did not really work," says Vatanka.

Iran has sought to show that it is not isolated on the international scene and that it's not alone in having problems with the United States. Within its own borders, Tehran also wants to promote its image as an influential global power. But this is a propaganda message that the population no longer believes in, especially when it comes to Africa. Indeed, Iranians have seen no return on investment from their leaders' African policy. In Vatanka's opinion, Iran's ideological foreign policy in Africa is a disaster. "It costs Iran money, labor and markets. This is true in Africa, but also elsewhere," he says.

Iranian diplomacy in Africa has, in fact, revealed its limitations. Iran, which has 25 embassies in Africa, must also face Saudi Arabia. The Sunni kingdom takes a dim view of the presence of the Shia power in Africa.

Egypt and Morocco are also concerned about Iranian proselytism. Morocco, for example, has already severed its relations with Iran twice, first in 2009, when it denounced Tehran's religious "activism," and again in 2018, when it accused Iran of supporting the Polisario in Western Sahara via Lebanese Hezbollah.

In fact, Iran is regularly suspected of arms trafficking in Africa. Senegal broke off diplomatic relations with Iran following the seizure of an arms shipment in Lagos in 2010, but relations were renewed in 2013.

Following the execution of Shia Sheikh Nimr Baqr al-Nimr in 2016 by Saudi Arabia, Djibouti and Somalia announced they were severing diplomatic relations with Iran. Sudan, although a long-time ally of Tehran, has done the same.

"The Cold War between Saudi Arabia and Iran has been transferred to Africa," says Therme. Indeed, the two powers have already been confronting each other by proxy in Yemen since 2015. The nations that have recently severed their relations with Iran have all joined the Saudi coalition against the Houthis, supported by the Islamic Republic. Morocco, for its part, suspended its military participation in 2019.

If Iranian interference and rivalry with Saudi Arabia are damaging economic relations between Iran and Africa, Washington's exit from the Iranian nuclear deal and the restoration of American sanctions in 2018 complicate the situation even more. Indeed, at a time when Iran is experiencing an unprecedented economic crisis, how can it compete with powers such as China or Russia, which are increasingly influential on the African continent?

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Geopolitics

A Dove From Hiroshima: Is Fumio Kishida Tough Enough To Lead Japan?

Japan's new prime minister is facing the twin challenges of COVID-19 and regional tensions, and some wonder whether he can even last as long as his predecessor, who was forced out after barely one year.

Japan's new PM Fumio Kishida in Tokyo on Sept. 29

Daisuke Kondo

-Analysis-

TOKYO — When Fumio Kishida, Japan's new prime minister. introduced himself earlier this month, he announced that the three major projects of his premiership will be the control of the ongoing pandemic; a new type of capitalism; and national security.

Kishida also pledged to deal with China "as its neighbor, biggest trade partner and an important nation which Japan should continue to dialogue with."

Nothing too surprising. Still, it was a rapid turn of events that brought him to the top job, taking over for highly unpopular predecessor, Yoshihide Suga, who had suddenly announced his resignation from office.


After a fierce race, Kishida defeated Taro Kono to become the president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and pave the way for the prime minister's job.

Born into politics

A key reason for Kishida's victory is the improving health situation, following Japan's fifth wave of the COVID pandemic that coincided with this summer's Olympic Games in Tokyo.

The best way to describe Kishida is to compare him to a sponge: not the most interesting item in a kitchen, yet it can absorb problems and clean up muck. His slogan ("Leaders exist to make other people shine") reflects well his political philosophy.

He is an excellent actor.

Kishida was born into a political family: His grandfather and father were both parliament members. Between the ages of six to nine, he studied in New York because of his father's work at the time. He attended the most prestigious private secondary school — the Kaisei Academy, of which about half of its graduates go to the University of Tokyo.

However, after failing three times the entrance exam to , Kishida finally settled for Waseda University. Coming from a family where virtually all the men went to UTokyo, this was Kishida's first great failure in life.

An invitation for Obama

After he graduated from college, Kishida worked for five years in a bank before serving as secretary for his father, Fumitake Kishida. In 1992, his father suddenly died at the age of 65. The following year, Kishida inherited his father's legacy to be elected as a member of the House of Representatives for the Hiroshima constituency. Since then, he has been elected successfully nine straight times, and served as Shinzo Abe's foreign minister for four years, beginning in December 2012. A former subordinate of his from that time commented on Kishida:

"If we are to sum him up in one sentence, he is an excellent actor. Whenever he was meeting his peers from other countries, we would remind him what should be emphasized, or when a firm, unyielding 'No' was necessary, and so on ... At the meetings, he would then put on his best show, just like an actor."

According to some insiders, during this period as foreign minister, his toughest stance was on nuclear weapons. This is due to the fact that his family hails from Hiroshima.

In 2016, following his suggestion, the G7 Ise-Shima Summit was held in Hiroshima, which meant that President Barack Obama visited the city — the first visit by a U.S. president to Hiroshima, where 118,661 lives were annihilated by the U.S. atomic bomb.

Photo of Shinzo Abe, Barack Obama and Fumio Kishida with their backs to the camera, in Hiroshima in 2016

Shinzo Abe, Barack Obama and Fumio Kishida in Hiroshima in 2016

commons.wikimedia.org

Japanese cynics

In September, 2020 when Shinzo Abe stepped down as prime minister, Kishida put out his candidacy for the first time for LDP's presidency. He didn't even get close. This was his second great failure.

But reading his biography, Kishida Vision, I must say that besides the two aforementioned hiccups, Kishida's life has been smooth sailing over the past 64 years

When one has had a happy and easy life, one tends to think that human nature is fundamentally good. Yet, the world doesn't work like that. And Japanese tend to believe that "human nature is vice," and have always felt a bit uneasy with the dovish Kishida diplomacy when he was foreign minister.

Leftist traditions from Hiroshima

Hiroshima has always been a city with a leftist political tradition. Kishida's character, coupled with the fact that he belongs to the moderate Kochikai faction within the LDP, inevitably means that he won't be a right-wing prime minister.

How long will a Fumio Kishida government last?

Kishida would never have the courage to be engaged in any military action alongside Japan's ally, the United States, nor will he set off to rewrite the country's constitution.

So after barely a year of Yoshihide Suga in office, how long will a Fumio Kishida government last? If Japan can maintain its relatively stable health situation for some time, it could be a while. But if COVID comes roaring back, and the winter brings a sixth wave of the pandemic as virtually all Japanese experts in infectious diseases have predicted, then Kishida may just end up like Suga. No sponge can clean up that mess.

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