What Indonesia’s Election Means For Democracy — And The U.S.-China Duel

-Analysis-

PARIS — Known as the “world’s third-largest democracy” after India and the U.S., Indonesia’s 200 million voters are today electing their president. It’s an event that deserves attention, as this Southeast Asian country is one of the emerging powers of the multipolar world.

Building a democracy is no easy task, given Indonesia’s history and geography. Suharto’s 32-year dictatorship, until his departure in 1998, was particularly brutal: an extraordinary film, The Act of Killing, retraced its methods.

Since then, Indonesia has been convalescing and trying to turn the page. Outgoing President Joko Widodo’s two terms in office should have helped. He ended with an unprecedented record popularity rating of almost 80%. But his succession, and his role in it, are stirring up old demons.

Continuity in the ruling

The election’s favorite is Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, who has a long history in the special forces of the dictatorship. He was the son-in-law of the dictator Suharto and his vice-presidential running mate is the incumbent president’s son: a dynastic flavor pervades this election.

Voters turn a blind eye to the less glorious aspects of this presidential “ticket”.

Indonesians seem to have come to terms with this since Subianto could be elected in the first round against his two opponents. But intellectuals and civil society are outraged by a series of breaches of democratic rules.

Voters prefer the sense of continuity on which the defense minister and the president’s son surf, and turn a blind eye to the less glorious aspects of this presidential ticket.

The reason lies in the outgoing president’s track record: a real economic take-off, a growing middle class, and a country that counts in the global balance. The secret of this success: the minerals of ecological transition, of which the Indonesian subsoil abounds. The country has become the world’s leading producer of nickel for electric batteries.

Non-alignment

More discreet than its Asian competitors, Indonesia is an emerging country that aspires to become one of the world’s top five economies within the next two decades. The outgoing president, Joko Widodo, has successfully attracted both Chinese and Western investors and has skilfully navigated the turbulent waters of Southeast Asia.

Bandoeng was the birthplace of non-alignment in 1955, which some would like to see revived.

Indonesia is a fascinating case study of the ability of a major Asian country not to choose sides in the Sino-American Cold War. It is not like the Philippines, which has granted military bases to the U.S.; nor is it subservient to Beijing. That is, despite the Jakarta-Bandoeng high-speed train line, 352 kilometers of Chinese modernity, inaugurated last year as part of the New Silk Roads. Bandoeng was the birthplace of non-alignment in 1955, which some would like to see revived.

Will this balance be preserved in the world’s largest Muslim country if Subianto is elected? This issue is at stake in this election, which is being closely watched in both Beijing and Washington.