The Contours Of Putin’s Ambitions Have Never Been Clearer

-Analysis-

KYIV — You might be surprised, but Russia’s success in negotiations with the U.S. poses the greatest risk not to us Ukrainians. Our risks remain unchanged. Proposals to appropriate our natural resources in exchange for nothing, as gratitude for past assistance — some of which benefited the U.S. economy — are only the latest reminders that our situation is far from simple.

However, our risks are already well-known, discussed, and entirely transparent to both the country’s leadership and society at large. This doesn’t ease the situation, but it doesn’t worsen it either. It’s simply predictable, even if we don’t like the forecast.

So, who is at risk? Let’s start with the main point. What does Vladimir Putin want, and why is he openly rejoicing not just at the end of isolation but at direct, exclusive negotiations with the U.S., closed off to everyone else?

Putin’s goal is for Moscow to return among the world’s major players who divide the planet into spheres of influence. Since he recognizes only the U.S. as a major player, his aim is to divide the world into zones of influence with the U.S. And as such, he believes, Europe falls into his “zone of influence.” If not entirely, then within the bounds of the former Warsaw Pact, encompassing countries that exited the USSR’s sphere through its collapse.

Orban and Fico

Initially, Putin seeks the unquestionable right to return former Soviet republics — Ukraine, Moldova, and the Baltic states — into his orbit. It’s no wonder our neighbors are nervous. Next are Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the Balkans.

Here, Viktor Orban of Hungary and Robert Fico of Slovakia are already at his feet. Moldova teeters on the edge amid a parliamentary struggle. Georgia has surrendered. We are fighting stubbornly and the Baltics are holding on.

But for how much longer will NATO offer protection if Putin and Trump shake hands? This is an open question with no clear answer.

New empire, old borders

Then there is Poland, which is already under attack from Belarus. What will happen next, especially if the planes continue to fly meaninglessly? How quickly can Russian money turn the far-right Polish political scene into an ultra-Russian one? Hungary is a good example. And so on it could spread to Berlin, if there is complete non-intervention from the U.S.

Some still find rays of confidence in Trump’s actions

If the negotiations are successful for Putin. And they might be.

I don’t know where some still find rays of confidence in Trump’s actions, but his policy of populist pragmatism and alienating allies shows Putin the possibility of finally getting what he wants: a new Russian-Soviet empire within old borders but with new influence.

At the center of history 

Therefore, everything happening now with the negotiations isn’t just about ending our war. It’s about the global future for the coming decades. Will democracy hold? Will Europe remain as we know it? Or will we plunge into a new world of neo-imperialism and ultra-reactionary politics?

As these decisions will be made around us, what will happen next?

I will conclude with a bit of good news amid the cold shower of reality. This cannot be resolved without us. Unexpectedly, Ukraine has become the center of decision-making regarding the future. So let’s focus on this, without losing our chance for victory. Because that too is still on the table.