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Geopolitics

Asia To Africa, Demographic Dividends And Disasters In The Year 2100

At a refugee camp in Ethiopia
At a refugee camp in Ethiopia
Lucie Jung

Climate change is already affecting people's lives, even as some may try to deny it. If nothing is done to curtail it, the impact will be much more pronounced in the coming years and decades, not only for certain communities — in low-lying coastal areas, for example — but for entire regions. Fast forward to the end of this century, and climate change could shift the global population balance, researchers now warn.

Today, Asia is home to roughly 60% of the world's population. But by 2100, it could drop to 43%, according to a study published in the journal Sciences Advances. That's in part due to rising temperatures and humidity levels, which would make it nearly impossible for people to live in the southern part of the continent. These areas are vulnerable to heat waves that would test the limits of human capacity to survive. In countries like India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, where citizens rely on agriculture, climate change would also endanger livelihoods. This is all nothing short of disastrous.

Drought in Uttar Pradesh, India — Photo:Prabhat Kumar Verma/ZUMA

In contrast, the proportion of the world's population living in Africa could rise by the end of the century, according to an estimate recently published in French daily Le Monde. Today, Africa holds 1.3 billion people — or about 17% of the world population. By 2100, the continent is projected to house 4.5 billion people. That would be 40% of the globe.

How will this affect the balance of power in the world? My guess is as good as yours.

By striving to curb climate change, we can alter these projected statistics.

The jump in Africa's population is attributed to longer life expectancy. This is good news, as is the opportunity offered by the demographic dividend, i.e. Africa's relatively youthful population will be a driving force for growth in an aging world. But in Asia, the future looks bleak, if we are to go down the path described by current projections.

It's important to remember that these are estimates. It's also important to remember that we can act now: By striving to curb climate change, we can alter these projected statistics. The world in 2100, in other words, can still be whatever 2017 decides it to be.

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Society

What's Spoiling The Kids: The Big Tech v. Bad Parenting Debate

Without an extended family network, modern parents have sought to raise happy kids in a "hostile" world. It's a tall order, when youngsters absorb the fears (and devices) around them like a sponge.

Image of a kid wearing a blue striped sweater, using an ipad.

Children exposed to technology at a very young age are prominent today.

Julián de Zubiría Samper

-Analysis-

BOGOTÁ — A 2021 report from the United States (the Youth Risk Behavior Survey) found that 42% of the country's high-school students persistently felt sad and 22% had thought about suicide. In other words, almost half of the country's young people are living in despair and a fifth of them have thought about killing themselves.

Such chilling figures are unprecedented in history. Many have suggested that this might be the result of the COVID-19 pandemic, but sadly, we can see depression has deeper causes, and the pandemic merely illustrated its complexity.

I have written before on possible links between severe depression and the time young people spend on social media. But this is just one aspect of the problem. Today, young people suffer frequent and intense emotional crises, and not just for all the hours spent staring at a screen. Another, possibly more important cause may lie in changes to the family composition and authority patterns at home.

Firstly: Families today have fewer members, who communicate less among themselves.

Young people marry at a later age, have fewer children and many opt for personal projects and pets instead of having children. Families are more diverse and flexible. In many countries, the number of children per woman is close to or less than one (Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong among others).

In Colombia, women have on average 1.9 children, compared to 7.6 in 1970. Worldwide, women aged 15 to 49 years have on average 2.4 children, or half the average figure for 1970. The changes are much more pronounced in cities and among middle and upper-income groups.

Of further concern today is the decline in communication time at home, notably between parents and children. This is difficult to quantify, but reasons may include fewer household members, pervasive use of screens, mothers going to work, microwave ovens that have eliminated family cooking and meals and, thanks to new technologies, an increase in time spent on work, even at home. Our society is addicted to work and devotes little time to minors.

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