​​Will Post-Erdogan Turkey Really Be Much Different?

-OpEd-

ISTANBUL — I think my readers are familiar with Lewis Caroll’s Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland ,so I’ll skip the introduction and go directly to the part where Alice picks up the fan dropped by the rabbit and begins fanning herself: “Dear, dear! How queer everything is to-day! And yesterday things went on just as usual. I wonder if I’ve been changed in the night? Let me think: was I the same when I got up this morning? I almost think I can remember feeling a little different. But if I’m not the same, the next question is, Who in the world am I? Ah, That’s the great puzzle!”

Alice is just like Turkey, waking up on the morning of April 1 to local election results that saw the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) retained its control over key cities and made huge gains elsewhere.

Or we could give that line to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a story where he is the protagonist. What? Is that too scary? OK, calm down. Everything’s fine. You can read similar words in the statements by CHP leader Ozgur Ozel. It all leads to the same place.

The most common sentence I’ve ever heard in this beautiful country is, by far: “We are living in the days in which we need unity and togetherness the most.” I believe this one should take second place: “Nothing will ever be the same in Turkey!”

But what happened when Turkey changed? Where did the old Turkey go — and where did the new one come from?

As a mortal who has lived in this country into my current middle age, I’ve never witnessed change in Turkey — even though “change is the only constant.” But let’s not get distracted by philosophical problems.

A turning point

The first thing Erdogan said on the night of March 31, following the tsunami of opposition votes that rained down on him, was that the results were “not an end, but a turning point” for his Justice and Development Party (AKP).

I love such sentences. I imagine Napoleon Bonaparte on the road to exile in Elba after losing his army at the Battle of Waterloo, saying “This is not an end, but a turning point!”

It’s an excellent sentence, no matter how you look at it. It allows you to ignore the mistakes of the past, knowingly committed wrongs and the cost of your actions that led to this path. When you say this sentence, we assume that you are paying a wise price for your mistakes.

Of course, in Turkey, we know what “turning point” actually means: turning around in circles to end up at the exact same place. But Erdogan is not the person we should expect to learn lessons from the election results and change.

At his age, he cannot change his personality — which brought him to his position. And there is no one around him who will tell him “Brother, you’ve done wrong, you should change your ways.” In fact, these are the reasons why Erdogan is the sole true loser of this election.

A one man’s rule party

Political parties are sort of a living organism, formed by the people who have gathered around an idea. Erdogan’s AKP, however, does not show any such signs of life. He has eliminated the party’s founding fathers and those who could get in his way to become the leader of a spotless party. And this will bring about his end.

That AKP, which has become a one-man party, made someone like Murat Kurum minister of environment and urbanization and then candidate for mayor of Istanbul. After spending five minutes with Kurum, a person of normal intelligence would have asked how the young man had managed to reach such positions. There isn’t a logical answer.

The economic downturn in Turkey undoubtedly affected the election results. We saw that the rumblings of empty stomachs can drown out even Erdogan’s voice.

Yet the AKP got about 30% of the vote on its worst day. It could have made it through the election with less damage if it hadn’t been turned into Erdogan’s private party.

Erdogan’s rivals

One common aspect of losing AKP candidates that they all kept low profiles because Erdogan doesn’t want any other leaders in the party. The most important thing this election showed us is that Erdogan has lost his psychological superiority.

The legend of Erdogan winning every election, even with candidates like Kurum, is over. Erdogan no longer has that kind of power. We can only guess what type of storms are raging inside Erdogan’s soul because of that. And you’ll see, Erdogan will not experience an unexpected enlightenment or turning point; he won’t change.

Erdogan would wish for Imamoglu and Yavas to turn on each other.

The next presidential election is in four years, and Erdogan now has two potential rivals: Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. I believe the former is a more frightening politician for Erdogan. Turkey is not accustomed to one politician stepping aside to leave the place for another to run. And I believe that will be a fundamental problem for the opposition in the next presidential election.

A tough race to follow

Imamoglu or Yavas? Both are like U.S. presidential candidates from a Hollywood movie. They have everything. They’re young and very photogenic alongside their spouses and children. The people love them both regardless of political affliction. I don’t know if they would flip a coin or covertly try to wear each other out.

It will be a tough race between the two, and if Erdogan could have one wish, he would wish for Imamoglu and Yavas to turn on each other.

Some 4 million new voters participated in the March local elections, and their votes were shared by the CHP and the Islamist Welfare Again Party (YRP). Voters have changed their preferences, and that is important in the long-term.

Voters have changed parties and can easily do it again. It’s the first change that is the hardest. Albert Einstein is quoted as saying “God does not play dice with the universe.” It happened once, it can happen again.

My suggestion to Erdogan, at his advanced age, is to go spend time with his grandchildren and think of ways to make amends to the mortals he has wronged.