-Analysis-
PARIS — In California, a Democratic stronghold, the resurgence of Donald Trump hasn’t been as poorly received as you would think — at least by the elites. An analysis of his previous term reveals that while he frequently criticized the growing influence of tech giants like Google, Amazon and Meta, he ultimately took no significant steps to undermine them.
On the contrary, he staunchly defended these companies when they faced challenges abroad — particularly against France, where the then-Minister of Economy attempted to tax Google to address its unusually low transfer costs.
[shortcode-Eye-On-Us-Box]
Beyond the United States, what could this election mean for the global tech landscape?
Strategically, the recurring issue of Taiwan is almost certain to come up again. Trump will likely ramp up pressure on TSMC, the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturer, to build more plants in the United States, with two or three new sites outside of Arizona already being considered.
Yet with each additional factory built on U.S. soil, the likelihood of firm American support in the event of a conflict between Taiwan and mainland China may diminish.
Possible scenarios
It is likely that the Trump administration will seek to increase export restrictions to China, which already impact semiconductor-related companies such as ARM, ASML, Nikon, STMicroelectronics and Samsung, to name only those outside the United States. As for TSMC, the company has preemptively announced that it will no longer export chips with a size below 7 nm to China, effective Nov. 11.
Regarding Europe, it is likely that Trump administration, heavily influenced by tech billionaire Elon Musk, will seek to boost its competitive advantage over the EU through extensive deregulation. Points of contention may crystallize around the GDPR (personal data protection) and especially the DSA (social media regulation), two EU regulations Musk openly dislikes.
In Europe, we must hope for a swift awakening.
Whether the initial steps toward AI regulation (such as U.S President Joe Biden’s Executive Order on AI) will survive remains to be seen, although it’s possible given that the Tesla CEO is frequently called upon to support tighter controls on this technology. Yet it’s worth noting that Musk is prone to unexpected reversals.
In Europe, we must hope for a swift awakening, even if it may be painful. Now that we know Trump is willing to pull the plug on NATO, we must consider all possible scenarios, including the most extreme ones.
What would happen if he decided to extend the technology restrictions imposed on China to Europe? Imagine, for a moment, that Microsoft’s 365 software suite became inaccessible or that restrictions were placed on access to major American cloud services, for starters. Put simply, this would effectively bring Paris’ CAC 40 stock market to a halt and, by extension, the French economy.
AI’s geopolitical implications
Without going that far, there is an endless range of digital retaliation measures, so easy to implement that the temptation to use them will inevitably arise.
In fact, even without the need for a new administration, Microsoft and Apple have already announced that some of their services would not be available in the EU, citing overly restrictive regulations that make it difficult for them to operate — a signal we would be unwise to ignore.
The EU is gradually shedding its naivety but still has little awareness of the geopolitical implications that AI could bring. Failing to make adequate decisions in this area leaves us vulnerable to economic dependency in the West and an increasing military threat on the Eastern front.
The U.S. defense system is largely bogged down by entrenched interests.
Yet, starting from nearly a blank slate to build a European defense model is also an opportunity; it would be possible to achieve supremacy in AI, quantum computing, and autonomous agents, which will be foundational elements of modern weapons systems. This is a chance, because contrary to popular belief, the American defense system is largely bogged down by entrenched interests. It is entirely possible to do better by harnessing European scientific and engineering excellence.
Naivety and opportunity
Ideally, we should be able to invest 3% of European GDP in defense and another 3% in research. It’s a significant amount, but it’s not unattainable. This level of investment would be feasible with the unification of European financial markets, as described in a recent report by former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.
Moving beyond naivety also means stopping the purchase of critical technologies from the United States when we can produce them ourselves: F-35 fighter jets, intelligence technologies like Palantir, or space launches via Musk’s SpaceX rockets. The wake-up call is here. It’s up to Europe to turn it into political momentum and take action.
