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Geopolitics

Why The West Says Nothing About Erdogan’s Pro-Hamas Rhetoric

The Turkish president praises the Hamas terrorists as “freedom fighters” and NATO says nothing. This is a snapshot of realpolitik at 360 degrees — starting with Erdogan.

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Economy Russia-Ukraine War

Rebuilding Ukraine: The U.S. Is Already Way Ahead Of Europe

The war is far from over, but on the other side of the Atlantic, preparations are already underway to ensure American businesses access to this promising market. In Europe, no one is making such necessary preparations, worries Jacques Attali.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Why The Polish Election Results Are Such Good News For Ukraine

The recent Polish parliamentary elections have ushered in a significant shift in the country’s political landscape, which includes promising outlook for its neighbor Ukraine that could be essential in shoring up support across Europe as the war with Russia heads into its third winter. But Kyiv shouldn’t take the amity of Donald Tusk and his centrist coalition for granted.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Why Zelensky Is Betting Everything On Ukraine’s Support Of Israel

Equating the Hamas attack on Israel with the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a way to keep attention, and aid, coming for his nation’s war. But the situations are quite different, and Zelensky’s clear stance on the side of Israel risks losing both attention and support.

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In The News

Serbia And Kosovo: A Local Conflict Turns Dangerously International

Tension are rising between Serbia and Kosovo, taking on an international dimension with Russia lending its support to Serbia, while NATO has long had a presence in Kosovo. There is only one real solution to such a historic feud over territory and ethnicity, and it’s called: Europe.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Battle For The Danube? Putin Risks Pushing Ukraine War Into NATO Territory

In recent months, Moscow has intensified its attacks on Ukrainian grain export routes that are dangerously close to NATO member Romania. Is Putin playing with fire?

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Economy

Unpacking Erdogan’s Charm Offensive In The Gulf (It’s Complicated)

Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent tour of Gulf states is proof that the Turkish president aims to repair his country’s diplomatic ties in the region, all the while looking for investment for Ankara’s floundering economy. Quite the reversal of fortunes considering that not so long ago Gulf countries faced accusations of sponsoring the 2016 coup attempt in Turkey.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Why The U.S. May Be Pushing The Controversial “Korea Scenario” For Ukraine

Ukraine was promised fast-tracked NATO membership last week. But promises often are overtaken by politics, and voices in and around the U.S. government are looking for softer ways out of the Ukraine war, including freezing the conflict like what was done between the two Koreas 70 years ago.

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In The News

Why Iran Is Relying Ever More On Russia And China

Iran can expect few real economic benefits from joining the China-dominated SCO, but its leaders hope China and Russia will help the regime tighten its grip at home.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Why The Kremlin Is Quietly Satisfied With The NATO Summit Outcome

The prospect of Ukraine joining NATO has been postponed. Vladimir Putin will be pleased, knowing that Russia’s best hope is for a long war.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Article 5 Or G7? Why Ukraine Is Marginally Stronger After Vilnius

After a rocky start, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had reason to be happy after this week’s NATO summit. The military bloc pledged fast-tracked membership once the war is over, as well as military support from the entire G7 block for the duration of the conflict.

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In The News

How France Is Resisting The U.S. Push To Use NATO Against China

NATO has turned its focus from Ukraine to Asia, as American officials try to prepare a united front in case Taiwan is invaded. But consensus may not be possible as another key member, France, has its own strategy.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

For Ukraine, Can The “Israel Model” Be A Viable Alternative To NATO?

The NATO Summit in Vilnius will confirm that Ukraine’s entry to join the alliance must be delayed. U.S. President Biden has implied Ukraine could get similar security guarantees and support as Israel. There are clear pros and cons of such a security model, which did not happen overnight.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Reading Biden In Vilnius: NATO Is About To Make Ukraine Stronger Than Ever

Ahead of the Vilnius NATO summit, Joe Biden said Ukraine joining NATO while the war is on is a non-starter. But it’s also a done deal once Kyiv has vanquished its Russia invaders.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Alexander Vindman: An Urgent Warning For Ukraine About A Second Trump Presidency

Former Director for European Affairs for the U.S. National Security Council, Alexander Vindman is the Ukrainian native who got ensnared in Donald Trump’s first impeachment investigation. Since the Russian invasion of his native Ukraine, he has been urging more Western support for Kyiv. The coming NATO summit is key, but so to are the 2024 U.S. elections.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

From Bulgaria To Turkey, Zelensky Tries To Secure NATO’s Eastern Flank

Ahead of the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is on a diplomatic tour of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Turkey. Two of those countries, Bulgaria and Turkey, may prove to be particularly important for Ukraine’s future.

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Economy Food / Travel Green

Why Air Travel Is Unbearable This Summer — And Maybe Unsustainable Forever

With the Ukrainian war, rising energy prices and the scarcity of personnel, airplane prices are up by 30-50%. But there is something more structural that could bring a definitive end to low-cost options like RyanAir and EasyJet, but also putting the entire industry’s market model into doubt.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

From East And West, Two Ways To Scare Putin Off The Nuclear Option

Kyiv is accusing Russia of planning to blow up the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in eastern Ukraine, which would cause incalculable horror, and extend beyond the borders of Ukraine. But it may be messages in Beijing and Washington that can dissuade Vladimir Putin even more than exposing civilians, including Russians, to nuclear fallout.

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Russia-Ukraine War War in Ukraine

Three Lessons From Wagner’s Insurrection — None Are Good News For The Tsar

The fate of Prigozhin, Putin and Ukraine hang in the balance. And though much is still not clear, Russia is simply no longer under the reign of an all-powerful Vladimir Putin.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Zaporizhzhya, Inside Job: Russia’s Most Likely Nuclear Weapon Isn’t A Missile

Ukraine is warning about a possible terrorist attack on the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, which Moscow’s military has occupied since the early days of the invasion. The U.S. Senate warns that, in that case, NATO is ready to enter the war.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War War in Ukraine

“Ukraine Will Win The War” — Georgia’s President Tries To Quell Doubts From Kyiv

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has revealed fault lines in Georgia. Many in the country strongly condemn Russia, but some pro-Russian voices have positioned the country as a Kremlin ally. In an exclusive interview with Ukrainska Pravda, Georgian President Salomé Zourabichvili draws the line on what side of history her country will ultimately stand.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

A How-To Guide To Make Sense Of Ukraine’s Counteroffensive

Don’t believe each new twist, minute-by-minute, as information is a weapon that both sides handle carefully. But there are ways to begin to see how this possibly decisive battle will turn out.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Too Soon, Too Late: What’s Really Blocking Ukraine’s Entry To NATO?

Volodymyr Zelensky has made his demand clear: full NATO membership for Ukraine, perhaps as soon as this year. Yet member countries, from the U.S. to top European allies, are still stuck in the mindset of not “provoking” Russia. But if not now, when?

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In The News

The Widest Europe: The Meaning Of Moldova In The Face Of Russian Aggression

Europe’s leaders are in Moldova as tensions increase with Russia and in Kosovo. The summit is already making an impact as Europe pushes back against Russian interference.

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Geopolitics

China Is Recruiting Former NATO Pilots — Is That OK?

A Parliamentary committee that oversees German intelligence services is questioning Beijing increasing recruitment activities of those who know Western weaponry best. This raises a fundamental strategic question as China-West tensions grow .

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War War in Ukraine

Why Zelensky’s Europe Tour Was So Important — Short And Long-Term

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky succeeded in securing massive stocks of weapons essential to Ukraine’s imminent counteroffensive — and, crucially, he laid the groundwork for Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership.

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Geopolitics Ideas

The West Is Dreaming Of Erdogan’s Defeat, Very Quietly

Western leaders hope the end is coming for the reign of Turkey’s longtime leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but saying it too loudly is just too risky in geopolitical terms.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War War in Ukraine

When Will Ukraine Join NATO? All Eyes On Vilnius, And The Frontline

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accepted an invitation to attend the next NATO summit in July, but he will arrive with expectations that the alliance is ready to pave the way for the country’s accession to the military alliance, even as the state of the war itself remains crucial to the decision.

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Russia-Ukraine War

No Compromise: What’s Driving Poland’s New Hard Line On Russia

“We are realists, and therefore we do not believe in the possibility of a compromise between freedom and slavery…” Poland’s foreign minister has outlined what the country’s foreign strategy will look like in the coming years, built on support of Ukraine and steadfast resistance to the Russian aggressors.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

How Viktor Orban Weighs On Ethnic Hungarians In Ukraine

A visit to the Ukrainian region of Transcarpathia, which borders Hungary and is home to about 150,000 Hungarian-Ukrainians, where the pro-Russian stance of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is wreaking havoc.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Putin’s Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: Russia Now Has An 800-Mile Border With NATO

Russia’s president only has himself to blame for historically neutral Finland acquiring NATO status.

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In The News

Russian Nukes In Belarus: Lessons From Putin’s Cheapest Blackmail Yet

Of course Russia’s announcement of moving tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus should not be underestimated. But the reality is that, since the beginning of the invasion, Russia’s nuclear situation has not changed. We should instead look hard at where both Minsk and Beijing have wound up.

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In The News

AUKUS: Bold Deterrent Or Self-Fulfilling Prophecy Of A Future War With China?

AUKUS, the security pact between the US, the UK, and Australia, is beginning to take shape. Its aim is to deter China, but it risks drawing the Indo-Pacific region into a military conflict.

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Ideas Russia-Ukraine War

A Year Of Putin Lies: How Russian War Propaganda Has Backfired From Day One

From the first fake news reports that Zelensky had fled to Putin’s latest speech Tuesday that blamed the war on the West, Russia’s attempts to manipulate opinion have wound up leaving Moscow itself as the prime victim of its own lies.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Biden v. Putin? Don’t Underestimate The Weight Of “Sleepy Joe’s” Kyiv Surprise

In the inevitable race for symbolic victories on the eve of the Ukraine invasion’s first anniversary, Joe Biden scored a major victory with his surprise visit to Kyiv. Meanwhile, one year on, Vladimir Putin has yet to visit his own country’s troops on the front line.

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In The News

Smaller Allies Matter: Afghanistan Offers Hard Lessons For Ukraine’s Future

Despite controversies at home, Nordic countries were heavily involved in the NATO-led war in Afghanistan. As the Ukraine war grinds on, lessons from that conflict are more relevant than ever.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

The Poroshenko Plan: 7 Ways To Truly Crush Russia’s Economy

Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian businessman and politician, who served as the fifth president of Ukraine from 2014 to 2019, believes more can be done to defeat Putin, by truly crippling the Russian economy:

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In The News

How Blocking Sweden’s NATO Bid Plays Right Into Erdogan’s Election Campaign

Turkey’s objections to Swedish membership of NATO may mean that Finland joins first. But as he approaches his highly contested reelection bid at home, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is ready to use the issue to his advantage.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Paris-Berlin, Warsaw-Kyiv: Europe’s Balance Of Power Will Never Be The Same

A new future is unfolding in real time, one that leaders in France, Germany and beyond could not have envisioned even a year ago.

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Geopolitics Ideas

European Defense: How Russia’s War Changed Everything And Nothing

The EU and NATO have vowed to expand cooperation, which may mean a major long-term shift in European defense strategy. Still, the French know that the reality on the ground means that European defense effectively still means NATO.

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