-Analysis-
MOSCOW — Ahead of the recent NATO Summit in Vilnius, Moscow had warned the West that the Kremlin would be following this “anti-Russian” meeting “very closely.” True to form, Russia responded with arms all week: Since Monday, its army has launched a series of nightly drone attacks on Kyiv.
The Ukrainian capital is less than 600 kilometers from Vilnius, Lithuania, a former Soviet Republic where NATO heads of state met Tuesday and Wednesday. On the military front, Russian troops claim to have broken through 1.5 kilometers deep in eastern Ukraine in recent days.
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When it comes to diplomacy, 17 months after launching the “special military operation” against its neighbor, the Kremlin can take heart from the summit’s conclusions.
“At first sight, this is good news for [Russia],” says Andrei Kortounov of the Russian Council, a Russian think tank on international issues. “All options remain open, even if it doesn’t make [Putin’s] favorite solution, Ukrainian neutrality, any more realistic.”
Existential threat
Back in February 2022, the head of the Kremlin explained that one of the aims of his offensive was to prevent Kyiv from joining NATO, which it perceived as an existential threat.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had come to Vilnius with the firm intention of obtaining a clear agreement for NATO membership, loudly denouncing the Alliance’s “indecision”, which, according to him, “encourages Russian terror”. He left with the simple prospect of an invitation to join the organization.
Moscow is aiming for a long war
In the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin can therefore remain satisfied: Poland and other countries are in favor of Kyiv’s early membership, but the U.S. and German position prevailed out of fear of escalating the conflict with Russia, which could lead to a possible direct involvement of the military alliance against Moscow.
A satisfying result for Moscow
“In the end, this summit confirms that Kyiv’s NATO membership, which could have been considered before the conflict, has now been postponed indefinitely”, says a senior European diplomat in Moscow. “Formally speaking, there will certainly be protests from the Russians. But in practice, for them, this summit was a non-event.”
There was no immediate official comment from the Kremlin on Kyiv’s non-membership of NATO. “The Vilnius summit only perpetuates the current situation,” the source concludes. “It’s a satisfying result for Moscow, which is aiming for a long war in Ukraine.”
