Syria Crisis

On Syria, The West Must Now Make A Deal With Russia And Iran

Assad and Putin at the Kremlin in October.
Assad and Putin at the Kremlin in October.
Dominique Moïsi

-OpEd-


PARIS â€" A majority of historians describe the Spanish Civil War, fought from 1936 to 1939, as a dress rehearsal for what came next, World War II. Will historians of the future be saying the same about the Syrian civil war?

All you need to do is replace Nazi Germany and the Italian fascists with Russian and Iran. We're not comparing the nature of these regimes. But in their active support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Moscow and Tehran have a strategy, and they're enforcing it without qualm or hesitation. But Western democracies have so far been behaving as they did in their support of the Spanish Republic back then: with a mixture of cravenness and contradiction, incapable of devising and applying a coherent strategy.

Will all of that change under the double impact of Putin, on the one hand, and the refugee crisis on the other?

Will the Russian fear of being drowned by the influx of refugees bring change where the hundreds of thousands of dead Syrians, civilians for the most part, weren't enough to awaken our consciousness?

The fallout from the Paris attack will also undoubtedly factor in as well.

Shakespeare once wrote a play entitled The Comedy of Errors. It would be tempting to describe the ongoing Syrian conflict as the "tragedy of errors." One after another, they make up a sort of catalogue of what shouldn't be done. Even though men in general struggle to learn from the past, a little flashback is necessary to move on to a new phase.

The first sin, committed at the beginning of the Syrian civil war, was the pride that saw Western leaders claim that the regime would imminently collapse. "It's a matter of weeks, months at most," was what Washington, Paris and Jerusalem all believed. Yet even while proclaiming the inevitable fall of the Assad regime, these countries were doing so little to bring it forward.

When the West blew it

I still strongly believe â€" perhaps wrongly â€" that at the beginning of the revolution there was a short window of opportunity that could have made the difference, if we'd helped them quickly and significantly. That didn't happen.

As prisoners of doubt, we've executed the worst of policies, that which consists in talking a lot and doing little. The high point of this non-strategy was in early September 2013, when President Barack Obama's America decided not to react to Assad crossing a "red line" by using chemical weapons on his own people.

That day, President Vladimir Putin's Russia understood that it could move its pawns in Eastern Europe and in the Middle East and get away with it. By getting its military force involved the way it has been on a large scale for several weeks, Russia has changed the whole game, especially diplomatically.

It's now become politically impossible to do without Moscow and, since the Iranian nuclear deal, without Tehran. No diplomatic solution is conceivable without the active participation of the U.S., Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, to which we should also add European countries such as France, Britain and probably Germany, not to mention the EU's High Representative.

Is a compromise conceivable? That will depend first and foremost on Washington's ability to finally define a strategy that goes beyond purely symbolic gestures, like its decision to send 50 special forces troops to help reconquer Raqqa.

Of course, Moscow's bet could eventually prove to be too risky, with negative consequences for the Russian regime. It appears increasingly probable that the Russian plane that crashed in the Sinai was bombed, as the Egyptian branch of ISIS claimed. The Russians are proud of their newfound diplomatic centrality, but they'll be weary of the human cost. The specter of Soviet engagement in Afghanistan isn't that far away. Russians, military or civilians, aren't ready to die so the Assad family can remain in power.

The definition of our regional priorities are best summed up with the expression "squaring the circle." Ideally, any policy should recognize the ISIS threat as a priority without forgetting the criminal character of the Damascus regime. Which, to be sure, means we need a compromise: Assad leaving power is no longer a prerequisite to opening a new round of negotiations, but there can be no deal without his retreat from power.

It's up to Moscow now to convince Tehran.

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Future

7 Ways The Pandemic May Change The Airline Industry For Good

Will flying be greener? More comfortable? Less frequent? As the world eyes a post-COVID reality, we look at ways the airline industry has been changing through a pandemic that has devastated air travel.

Ready for (a different kind of) takeoff?

Carl-Johan Karlsson

It's hard to overstate the damage the pandemic has had on the airline industry, with global revenues dropping by 40% in 2020 and dozens of airlines around the world filing for bankruptcy. One moment last year when the gravity became particularly apparent was when Asian carriers (in countries with low COVID-19 rates) began offering "flights to nowhere" — starting and ending at the same airport as a way to earn some cash from would-be travelers who missed the in-flight experience.

More than a year later today, experts believe that air traffic won't return to normal levels until 2024.


But beyond the financial woes, the unprecedented slowdown in air travel may bring some silver linings as key aspects of the industry are bound to change once back in full spin, with some longer-term effects on aviation already emerging. Here are some major transformations to expect in the coming years:

Cleaner aviation fuel

The U.S. administration of President Joe Biden and the airline industry recently agreed to the ambitious goal of replacing all jet fuel with sustainable alternatives by 2050. Already in a decade, the U.S. aims to produce three billion gallons of sustainable fuel — about one-tenth of current total use — from waste, plants and other organic matter.

While greening the world's road transport has long been at the top of the climate agenda, aviation is not even included under the Paris Agreement. But with air travel responsible for roughly 12% of all CO2 emissions from transport, and stricter international regulation on the horizon, the industry is increasingly seeking sustainable alternatives to petroleum-based fuel.

Fees imposed on the airline industry should be funneled into a climate fund.

In Germany, state broadcaster Deutsche Welle reports that the world's first factory producing CO2-neutral kerosene recently started operations in the town of Wertle, in Lower Saxony. The plant, for which Lufthansa is set to become the pilot customer, will produce CO2-neutral kerosene through a circular production cycle incorporating sustainable and green energy sources and raw materials. Energy is supplied through wind turbines from the surrounding area, while the fuel's main ingredients are water and waste-generated CO2 coming from a nearby biogas plant.

Farther north, Norwegian Air Shuttle has recently submitted a recommendation to the government that fees imposed on the airline industry should be funneled into a climate fund aimed at developing cleaner aviation fuel, according to Norwegian news site E24. The airline also suggested that the government significantly reduce the tax burden on the industry over a longer period to allow airlines to recover from the pandemic.

Black-and-white photo of an ariplane shot from below flying across the sky and leaving condensation trails

High-flying ambitions for the sector

Joel & Jasmin Førestbird

Hydrogen and electrification

Some airline manufacturers are betting on hydrogen, with research suggesting that the abundant resource has the potential to match the flight distances and payload of a current fossil-fuel aircraft. If derived from renewable resources like sun and wind power, hydrogen — with an energy-density almost three times that of gasoline or diesel — could work as a fully sustainable aviation fuel that emits only water.

One example comes out of California, where fuel-cell specialist HyPoint has entered a partnership with Pennsylvania-based Piasecki Aircraft Corporation to manufacture 650-kilowatt hydrogen fuel cell systems for aircrafts. According to HyPoint, the system — scheduled for commercial availability product by 2025 — will have four times the energy density of existing lithium-ion batteries and double the specific power of existing hydrogen fuel-cell systems.

Meanwhile, Rolls-Royce is looking to smash the speed record of electrical flights with a newly designed 23-foot-long model. Christened the Spirit of Innovation, the small plane took off for the first time earlier this month and successfully managed a 15-minute long test flight. However, the company has announced plans to fly the machine faster than 300 mph (480 km/h) before the year is out, and also to sell similar propulsion systems to companies developing electrical air taxis or small commuter planes.

New aircraft designs

Airlines are also upgrading aircraft design to become more eco-friendly. Air France just received its first upgrade of a single-aisle, medium-haul aircraft in 33 years. Fleet director Nicolas Bertrand told French daily Les Echos that the new A220 — that will replace the old A320 model — will reduce operating costs by 10%, fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by 20% and noise footprint by 34%.

International first class will be very nearly a thing of the past.

The pandemic has also ushered in a new era of consumer demand where privacy and personal space is put above luxury. The retirement of older aircraft caused by COVID-19 means that international first class — already in steady decline over the last decades — will be very nearly a thing of the past. Instead, airplane manufacturers around the world (including Delta, China Eastern, JetBlue, British Airways and Shanghai Airlines) are betting on a new generation of super-business minisuites where passengers have a privacy door. The idea, which was introduced by Qatar Airways in 2017, is to offer more personal space than in regular business class but without the lavishness of first class.

Aerial view of Rome's Fiumicino airport

Aerial view of Rome's Fiumicino airport

commons.wikimedia.org

Hygiene rankings  

Rome's Fiumicino Airport has become the first in the world to earn "the COVID-19 5-Star Airport Rating" from Skytrax, an international airline and airport review and ranking site, Italian daily La Repubblica reports. Skytrax, which publishes a yearly annual ranking of the world's best airports and issues the World Airport Awards, this year created a second list to specifically call out airports with the best health and hygiene standards.

Smoother check-in

​The pandemic has also accelerated the shift towards contactless traveling, with more airports harnessing the power of biometrics — such as facial recognition or fever screening — to reduce touchpoints and human contact. Similar technology can also be used to more efficiently scan physical objects, such as explosive detection. Ultimately, passengers will be able to "check-in" and go through a security screening anywhere at the airports, removing queues and bottlenecks.

Data privacy issues

​However, as pointed out in Canadian publication The Lawyer's Daily, increased use of AI and biometrics also means increased privacy concerns. For example, health and hygiene measures like digital vaccine passports also mean that airports can collect data on who has been vaccinated and the type of vaccine used.

Photo of planes at Auckland airport, New Zealand

Auckland Airport, New Zealand

Douglas Bagg

The billion-dollar question: Will we fly less?

At the end of the day, even with all these (mostly positive) changes that we've seen take shape over the past 18 months, the industry faces major uncertainty about whether air travel will ever return to the pre-COVID levels. Not only are people wary about being in crowded and closed airplanes, but the worth of long-distance business travel in particular is being questioned as many have seen that meetings can function remotely, via Zoom and other online apps.

Trying to forecast the future, experts point to the years following the 9/11 terrorist attacks as at least a partial blueprint for what a recovery might look like in the years ahead. Twenty years ago, as passenger enthusiasm for flying waned amid security fears following the attacks, airlines were forced to cancel flights and put planes into storage.

40% of Swedes intend to travel less

According to McKinsey, leisure trips and visits to family and friends rebounded faster than business flights, which took four years to return to pre-crisis levels in the UK. This time too, business travel is expected to lag, with the consulting firm estimating only 80% recovery of pre-pandemic levels by 2024.

But the COVID-19 crisis also came at a time when passengers were already rethinking their travel habits due to climate concerns, while worldwide lockdowns have ushered in a new era of remote working. In Sweden, a survey by the country's largest research company shows that 40% of the population intend to travel less even after the pandemic ends. Similarly in the UK, nearly 60% of adults said during the spring they intended to fly less after being vaccinated against COVID-19 — with climate change cited as a top reason for people wanting to reduce their number of flights, according to research by the University of Bristol.

At the same time, major companies are increasingly forced to face the music of the environmental movement, with several corporations rolling out climate targets over the last few years. Today, five of the 10 biggest buyers of corporate air travel in the US are technology companies: Amazon, IBM, Google, Apple and Microsoft, according to Taipei Times, all of which have set individual targets for environmental stewardship. As such, the era of flying across the Atlantic for a two-hour executive meeting is likely in its dying days.

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