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Geopolitics

Can Western Diplomacy Contain Netanyahu’s Thirst For Revenge?

After extending its complete support to Israel in the wake of the October 7 attacks, the West has started to soften its stance and demand that the state follow international law. But there are scant signs that Israel will let up its all-out assault in Gaza.

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Geopolitics special series The Endless War

Why So Many Palestinians Wouldn’t Flee Gaza Even If They Could

Even as the borders close and the siege tightens, most of the Palestinians also deeply fear leaving, convinced that (like their forebears) they’ll never return.

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Geopolitics

Will War Spill Over Into Lebanon? It’s Up To Hezbollah — And That Means Iran

The widely believed inability of Lebanon to control Hezbollah has sparked fears among Lebanese that the Iranian-backed group will join Hamas’ war against Israel and dragged their troubled nation back to a dark chapter in history.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Ukraine To Palestine: The West’s Isolation Keeps Getting Deeper — And More Dangerous

The West has largely been united in clear condemnation of Hamas and support of Israel. For the rest of the international community, even if Hamas has very little backing, most countries have preferred an ambiguous neutrality. It’s part of a deeper shift in geopolitics where the so-called Global South, and elsewhere, no longer tolerate what they see as Western “double standards.”

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Geopolitics special series The Endless War

Urban Combat? Occupation? Why Israel’s Coming Ground War In Gaza Has No Good Options

In response to the attack by Hamas, Israel promises to eradicate the group, but what does this really look like? With the promise of a high toll in human lives and the complex network of the Gaza Strip, an operation to retaliate against Hamas may be even more difficult that one may think.

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Geopolitics Ideas

The Hamas-Israel War: What We Already Know Has Changed Forever

There will be a before and after to October 7, 2023, so unprecedented and traumatic have the events of the last 48 hours been for Israel, followed by massive retaliation. We can already draw several lessons from this.

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Geopolitics

How The Chaos In Washington Emboldens Moscow And Beijing

The deep dysfunction of American democracy is bringing smiles (and big ideas) to autocratic regimes around the world, convinced that it is a sign of the West in decline.

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In The News

The Modi-Trudeau Clash, Lessons From How Erdogan And MBS Handled The West

The diplomatic showdown between India and Canada continues to worsen, the latest sign of the rising power of former mid-level nations that increasingly are asserting themselves in the face of Western dominance.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Kyiv Reality Check: What Ukraine’s Friends Say Out Loud — And Whisper To Each Other

Europe’s foreign ministers traveled together to Kyiv yesterday to reaffirm their support for Ukraine. It is necessary after the first signs of “fatigue” in Western support, from a Polish about-face to the victory of a pro-Russian prime minister in Slovakia.

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Geopolitics Society

Why Slovakia’s Robert Fico Is Good For Putin — And Even Better For Orban

One man’s victory in Slovakia may move the tides of European support for Ukraine, and play into an “illiberal temptation” that is spreading across the continent, with Hungary’s prime minister set to cash in on his perennial clash with the EU.

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Geopolitics

The Return Of Ethnic Cleansing: Why Nagorno-Karabakh Matters, And Isn’t Over Yet

In a few days’ time, there will probably be no Armenians left in Nagorno-Karabakh, part of a long history of ethnic cleansing. The self-proclaimed Republic, defeated by Azerbaijan, has announced its dissolution, signaling its historic failure. But it also has much wider geopolitical implications.

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Future Geopolitics

What The China-Morocco Alliance Says About Our Geopolitical Future

As the world’s technologies change, so do the countries with not only advantages in production, but also geography and diplomacy. China knows this, and sees that investing in Moroccan resources is a particularly smart bet in the long run.

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Economy Geopolitics

Rare Earth Race: How China And Russia (And EVs) Are Pushing France Back Into Mining

The government is launching a “major inventory of French mining resources”, to prepare for the relaunch of mining in France of the minerals needed for the ecological transition. A concern for sovereignty in the face of Chinese domination of the sector.

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In The News

Serbia And Kosovo: A Local Conflict Turns Dangerously International

Tension are rising between Serbia and Kosovo, taking on an international dimension with Russia lending its support to Serbia, while NATO has long had a presence in Kosovo. There is only one real solution to such a historic feud over territory and ethnicity, and it’s called: Europe.

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Geopolitics

France Leaves Niger: Exposing The Empty Shell Of Post-Colonialism

Emmanuel Macron announced on Sunday evening the recall of the French ambassador to Niger, and the departure of the 1,500 French soldiers stationed there: the end of a dangerous impasse. France is being forced to wholly review its African policy.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Pride Or Politics? Why Poland Suddenly Turned Its Back On Ukraine

Poland has taken President Zelensky’s criticism at the UN very badly, and has decided to not supply new arms to Ukraine. One man in the Kremlin couldn’t be more pleased.

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Geopolitics

The Nagorno-Karabakh Debacle: Bad News For Putin Or Set Up For A Coup In Armenia?

It’s been a whirlwind 24 hours in the Armenian enclave, whose sudden surrender is reshaping the power dynamics in the volatile Caucasus region, leaving lingering questions about the future of a region long under the Russian sphere of influence.

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In The News

A U.S.-Iran $6 Billion Prisoner Exchange: Ransom Or Realpolitik?

With $6 billion freed up to go in the coffers of the corrupt and repressive regime in Tehran, nobody is happy. But sometimes there is no alternative to the imperfect nature of international diplomacy.

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Geopolitics Migrant Lives

Lampedusa, The Far Right’s Favorite European Island

The European migrant crisis is once again making headlines, this time from the small island of Lampedusa, Italy. It exposes not only the far right’s eagerness to exploit the issue of immigration, but also the delicate balance of power in electoral terms.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Morocco, Libya And Doubts About The True Motivations Of Western Humanitarian Aid

The practice of sending humanitarian aid to foreign countries has always been political, but Morocco’s decision to refuse offers of search-and-rescue teams raises questions about national sovereignty and politics in times of crisis.

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Geopolitics Ideas Russia-Ukraine War

Putin & Kim: What Happens When Two Pariahs Have Nothing Left To Lose

North Korea lends its full support to Russia’s war in Ukraine, and will supply ammunition to Moscow, which in return will help Kim Jong-un with his space ambitions. With the whiff of a Cold War alliance, it shows how two regimes that have become so isolated they multiply the risks for the rest of the world.

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Future Geopolitics Ideas

Is There Any Way To Rein In The Power Of Big Tech?

A new biography of the Tesla, X (formerly Twitter) and Space X boss reveals that Elon Musk prevented the Ukrainian army from attacking the Russian fleet in Crimea last year, by limiting the beam of his Starlink satellites. Unchecked power is a problem.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Where To Look When The Very Idea Of Peace Is Gone?

The signing of the Oslo Accords 30 years ago was followed by a failure that set back the very idea of peace between Israelis and Palestinians. A look back at this historic episode and the lessons we can learn from it today.

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In The News

Why Morocco Still Won’t Accept Earthquake Aid From France?

Time is the most precious resource when it comes to disaster relief, and yet French teams have been left waiting for Morocco’s approval for their aid. Looking at recent tensions might explain why the country is hesitating on accepting help in a time of such dire need.

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In The News

How Netanyahu Has Made “Apartheid” Label Acceptable Inside Israel

Former Mossad chief Tamir Pardo joins a handful of former military and political leaders who have decided to break the taboo on using this infamous word, as a result of the political radicalization of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Xi Jinping’s G20 Absence — And Risks Of A Splintering World

There will be no Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping at this weekend’s summit of the world’s 20 leading economies in New Delhi: a symbol of the fragmentation of the world that has accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Battle For The Danube? Putin Risks Pushing Ukraine War Into NATO Territory

In recent months, Moscow has intensified its attacks on Ukrainian grain export routes that are dangerously close to NATO member Romania. Is Putin playing with fire?

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Geopolitics Ideas

Make No Mistake, The Hawks Are Running China

China released a new map where it borrows strips of lands from its neighbors. Although this is far from being the first time the country is involved in territorial disputes, Beijing’s growing military shows it has the power (and will?) to try to make it a reality.

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In The News

The Brave Return Of Syria’s Opposition Sends Assad Running Back To Russia And Iran

Syria is positioned to return to the geopolitical fold in the Arab world, but the political structure inside the country is still fractured, facing protests from its citizens and the need to call in the Russian air force and Iranian backers.

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Geopolitics

Gabon And Niger Coups Are A Wake-Up Call To Confront Kleptocracy In Africa

After a series of coups in West Africa, what will happen to the corrupt systems set up by past rulers — will they endure, or could reform be ahead?

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Geopolitics

First Niger, Now Gabon: What’s Triggering The Coups d’État In Francophone Africa?

Is it a Russian conspiracy or anti-Paris bias? Or a sign that democracy has never really taken root in post-colonial realities?

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Russia-Ukraine War

Here’s Why Western Support For Ukraine Is Not About To End

It’s undeniable that questions are being raised in the West about the cost of supporting Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s invasion. But no time soon will Western powers turn their backs on Kyiv. And the U.S. in particular has one big extra reason to work against a Russian victory: China.

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In The News

Why Ukraine Is Turning To France For Help In Africa — And How That Could Backfire

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba is in Paris seeking help to convince Africa to abandon its wait-and-see attitude, which benefits Russia. It’s an extraordinary illustration of how Africa is singularly focused on emancipating itself from its former colonizers.

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Geopolitics

Why The End Of Western Hegemony Is Not (Necessarily) The End Of The West

The West is losing influence on many fronts, embodied in the rise of the BRICS alliance as a kind of “counter-G7.” But Western leaders will need to decide if they want to be part of this change, or its victim.

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Geopolitics Ideas

Modi On The Champs Élysées, Portrait Of Realpolitik (Circa 2023)

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the guest of honor for the July 14-Bastille Day celebrations in Paris, a choice that has benefits and risks for both France and India, two medium-sized powers cultivating their relative independence.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Article 5 Or G7? Why Ukraine Is Marginally Stronger After Vilnius

After a rocky start, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had reason to be happy after this week’s NATO summit. The military bloc pledged fast-tracked membership once the war is over, as well as military support from the entire G7 block for the duration of the conflict.

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In The News

How France Is Resisting The U.S. Push To Use NATO Against China

NATO has turned its focus from Ukraine to Asia, as American officials try to prepare a united front in case Taiwan is invaded. But consensus may not be possible as another key member, France, has its own strategy.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Reading Biden In Vilnius: NATO Is About To Make Ukraine Stronger Than Ever

Ahead of the Vilnius NATO summit, Joe Biden said Ukraine joining NATO while the war is on is a non-starter. But it’s also a done deal once Kyiv has vanquished its Russia invaders.

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Geopolitics Russia-Ukraine War

Why The U.S. Delivery Of Cluster Bombs Weakens Ukraine’s Cause

Though the U.S. and Ukraine haven’t signed onto the arms convention banning the dangerous weapon, many of their closest allies have. Thus both Washington and Kyiv are coming under fire for the announcement of new U.S. supplies of cluster bombs.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Why Is The “Traitor” Prigozhin Already Back In Russia?

The post-coup mystery continues with reports that Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin is not, in fact, in Belarus, but in Russia. A look at what it says about Vladimir Putin’s hold on power.

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