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Turkey

Turkey's Opportunism, Using Paris Attack To Undermine Kurds

Kurdish troops liberate the town of Sinjar, Iraq
Kurdish troops liberate the town of Sinjar, Iraq
Fehim Tastekin

-OpEd-

ANTALYA — Opportunism may be one of the accepted facts of life in foreign policy, but that doesn't mean it's a good thing. The Turkish government is busy right now trying to make the most of two pieces of the Syrian crisis that have come to the fore: The recent flood of refugees to Europe, and the ISIS attacks in Paris. They are both likely to backfire.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's coy question "What would happen if these 2.2 million refugees get out of Turkey and start marching towards the EU?" is a cheap bargaining trick to say the least, attempting to introduce the destiny of desperate Syrian as a new unofficial dossier in EU-Turkey relations.

But now, the number of locks on the door of Europe is likely to rise as information circulates that one of the Paris attackers may have been a Syrian refugee who passed through Turkey. Will the negotiations move towards a buffer zone plan, or will the sides leave the with-or-without-Assad debate aside, and concentrate on ending the war in Syria as quickly as possible?

But let's be clear: Ankara is playing the terrorism card at the very moment that the Paris attacks strengthen the decisiveness to combat ISIS. Erdogan condemned the Paris attacks, calling for "a consensus of the international community against terrorism." But in his mind, this consensus means adding Kurdish forces to the EU list of terrorist organizations. The U.S. and the EU already recognize the historical Kurdish organization PKK as terrorists, but Ankara also wants the West to end its recent collaboration with the Kurdish groups, PYD and YPG, in the military fight against ISIS.

Assad, stay or go?

But the Paris attacks underlined the urgency for a broader solution in Syria, and that requires the U.S. and Russia to work together. Led by France, the West is now looking to get in line with Russia and put aside plans to overthrow the Damascus regime in favor of focusing on the defeat of ISIS.

The Vienna gathering on Saturday came just after the terror attack in Paris. A transition government is to be founded in Syria within six months, and UN-observed elections are to be held within 18 months according to the new constitution to be written. The ideal date for the Syrian government and the opposition groups to start talks under UN observation is Jan. 1.

So, ever more, it appears that the transition will be with Assad, though there is no clue about the long-term fate of Assad. The Russians are selling this by saying "the people at the ballot will decide, while the Americans appear ever more helpless and biding their time.

Turkish Foreign Minister Feridun Sinirlioglu insisted Assad will not run in the elections, and his exit will occur according to a process to be decided later. Russia is no longer pushing Assad to stay, according to Sinirlioglu.

Ever more, the Syrian issue is starting to be perceived within the context of "combating terrorism," which is also to Moscow's liking, though Turkey's desire to add the PYD and YPG to the terrorism list is not.

As people wonder whether the Paris attacks are a turning point in the battle against ISIS, some began to ask if the West would launch a ground war. Obama quickly ended such speculations at the recent G20 summit.

While the rest of the world begins to coalesce in the battle against ISIS, Turkey seems to care about nothing except stopping Kurds from moving west of the Euphrates. If this ends up standing in the way of a united front against ISIS, the whole world would suffer. And the allies would remember Turkey's blatant opportunism for a long time to come.

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Russia

Why Crimea Is Proving So Hard For Russia To Defend

Ukraine has stepped up attacks on the occupied Crimean peninsula, claiming Monday that a missile Friday killed the head of Russia's Black Sea fleet at the headquarters in Sevastopol. And Russia is doing all within its power to deny how vulnerable it has become.

Photograph of the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters in smoke after a Ukrainian missile strike.​

September 22, 2023, Sevastopol, Crimea, Russia: Smoke rises over the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters after a Ukrainian missile strike.

TASS/ZUMA
Kyrylo Danylchenko

Russian authorities are making a concerted effort to downplay and even deny the recent missile strikes in Russia-occupied Crimea.

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Media coverage in Russia of these events has been intentionally subdued, with top military spokesperson Igor Konashenkov offering no response to an attack on Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters in the Crimean city of Sevastopol, or the alleged downing last week of Russian Su-24 aircraft by Ukrainian Air Defense.

The response from this and other strikes on the Crimean peninsula and surrounding waters of the Black Sea has alternated between complete silence and propagating falsehoods. One notable example of the latter was the claim that the Russian headquarters building of the Black Sea fleet that was hit Friday was empty and that the multiple explosions were mere routine training exercises.

Ukraine claimed on Monday that the attack killed Admiral Viktor Sokolov, the commander of Russia's Black Sea Fleet. "After the strike on the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, 34 officers died, including the commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Another 105 occupiers were wounded. The headquarters building cannot be restored," the Ukrainian special forces said via Telegram on Monday.

Responding to reports of multiple missiles strikes this month on Crimea, Russian authorities say that all the missiles were intercepted by a submarine and a structure called "VDK Minsk", which itself was severely damaged following a Ukrainian airstrike on Sept. 13. The Russians likewise dismissed reports of a fire at the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet, attributing it to a mundane explosion caused by swamp gas.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has refrained from commenting on the military situation in Crimea and elsewhere, continuing to repeat that everything is “proceeding as planned.”

Why is Crimea such a touchy topic? And why is it proving to be so hard to defend?

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