-OpEd-
WARSAW — In 2018, I covered the presidential elections in Russia. Two years later, in Belarus. These days, I am following Georgia, which voted in the parliamentary elections on Oct. 26. Comparisons are inevitable.
When the exit poll results were announced, the atmosphere in each of these countries was different. Russians took the result for granted and, depending on their views, they expressed either satisfaction and acceptance, or frustration and bitterness. Some even went out to protest, aware that reports of arrests would not lead to changes in the Kremlin but would only — at most — cause “concern in the West.”
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For years, Belarusians reacted in the same way. Only in 2020, tired not only of authoritarianism but also of the COVID-19 pandemic, did they take to the streets in cities across the country to express their anger. Months of protests resulted in brutal arrests and the introduction of terror in the country, as well as Western sanctions and the isolation of Belarus on the international stage. This also resulted in disappointment because although everything had changed, at the same time, nothing had changed.
On Saturday evening, Georgians cheered happily. They were in the mood for opposition — but for only 10 minutes. They quickly realized that the results presented in the pro-government media by the ruling Georgian Dream party were different from those they had rejoiced in.
The noise, applause and laughter at the headquarters of the pro-European Coalition for Change quickly died down. At 8:15 p.m., the biggest noise was coming from outside the windows: The sound of a fireworks show organized by Georgian Dream to celebrate its “impressive victory.”
What I have observed
Contrary to journalists’ expectations, however, no outraged citizens gathered in the streets and squares of the capital, Tbilisi. Some Polish readers have already passed judgment. In comments published on social media and forums, they explained that Georgians were clearly closer to Russia in the ideology of the “Russian Peace.” And that they did not care about Europe at all — or at least not the majority of citizens.
“Georgians are not Europeans,” I read on one of the forums on Sunday morning.
Independent organizations, observers and oppositionists will soon report on the numbers and patterns of forgery. Today, I am basing my opinion on what I had the opportunity to observe with my own eyes.
First, it is difficult to talk about free and fair elections in which — just for voting for the opposition — you can be beaten by a gang of thugs waiting for “traitors of the nation” in front of the polling station. Or during such elections, during which independent observers saw both the insertion of fake ballots into the ballot boxes and the bribing of citizens.
About 70% of Georgians support EU integration.
Caution in passing judgments is advisable, especially because polls, both opposition and pro-government, conducted in recent years have indicated that about 70% of Georgians support EU integration.
“This is no place for Russian citizens.” “Russia kills.” “Fuck Ruzzia.” These slogans can be seen on the walls and facades of buildings in Tbilisi. On the doors of many pubs and bars, there are stickers in English and Russian with which the staff inform guests that they “warmly invite all those who are against imperial Russia and Putin.”
Some service establishments that had signs in both Georgian and Russian before Feb. 24, 2022, either removed the second version or ostentatiously crossed it out, making it clear what their attitude is to everything related to Russia.
Fear of war
The reason for this attitude is not only the Russian attack on Ukraine. The Russian-Georgian war and the occupation of two Georgian regions have had a strong impact on the attitude of Georgians toward Russia. Those who oppose any closer relations with Russia speak of different feelings. Some declare reluctance, others hatred. All are united by fear. Fear of war with Russia.
It may seem paradoxical, but it is precisely this fear that the pro-Russian Georgian Dream is currently exploiting. The party’s main narrative during the campaign was that the opposition was trying to “drag Georgia into a war.” And that is what Georgians fear the most.
Georgia’s difficult and painful history and the election campaign, during which Georgian Dream openly convinced people that after the opposition came to power, the country would share the fate of Ukraine, influenced part of society.
Some of the Georgians I spoke to on election day said that in the current situation they did not know what was best for Georgia. But I did not meet any imperialists or too many supporters of Russian President Vladimir Putin among them. Quite the opposite.
A stolen election
Some of my interlocutors, people who have dreamed for years of a European future for themselves and their children, said that it is hard for them to part with this vision. They are unfamiliar with the “Russian mir,” the politics of resentment, and anti-Americanism. But they are afraid that if Georgia, like Ukraine before it, decisively turns away from Russia, it will lead to a nightmare: Russian tanks and artillery will appear on the streets of Georgian cities.
It is not difficult to visualize this in Tbilisi. The Georgian Dream, in violation of bans on so-called “war propaganda,” hung up gigantic banners throughout the city, depicting Ukrainian cities destroyed by the Russian army.
Independent observers have pointed out the effect that these images may have had on Georgians. The International Association for Fair Elections and Democracy reported that a number of violations were recorded both during the election campaign and on voting day, and that some of them “could have influenced citizens’ voting decisions.”
The task of the West is to take this position very seriously.
Opposition representatives and political scientists say the Georgian elections were stolen by the ruling party. The task of the West, which will recognise the election results or not, is to take this position very seriously.
Putin’s imperialism reinforces the greed of a few, the fear of the masses, the indifference of those who observe the regimes and the people living in them from a distance, as well as the conviction of citizens that they lack their own agency.
Georgians, who recently celebrated obtaining the status of a candidate country for the EU, must not allow themselves to be defeated by Russian propaganda. The worst that could happen is to reinforce the belief that their vote means nothing to the West — and that Putin’s blackmail policy is more effective than democratic values.
