-Analysis-
PARIS — In the midst of the war in Ukraine, and as clouds gather over Chinese-American relations, will French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to China help restore diplomacy to its rightful place?
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During his first trip to China in 2018, the French president promised to visit every year. He returned only once, at the end of 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic interrupted global travel.
Macron is headed back to China on Wednesday. He will first try to restore the image of French companies in a country where foreign brands have lost popularity. French companies Alstom, Auchan and Carrefour have left China, while others quietly wonder whether they have a future in a country focused on encouraging its national champions.
The picture of French trade with China is worrying. In 2021, China was France’s second-largest supplier (9% market share) and seventh-largest export market, with France accounting for only 1.4% of total exports to China. In four years, the trade deficit has become France’s largest, increasing from €33 billion to €39.6 billion.
Restarting “human” conversations
It takes some real optimism to see a bright future for French companies in this context. But there is hope in luxury goods, aeronautics and nuclear energy.
Ultimately, diplomacy will motivate Macron’s first trip in four years.
Unlike Germany, the health of French companies does not depend on China. This raises the other issue of concern to France: the return of “human” relations with China, starting with university exchanges.
As much as Chinese students have continued to flock to French universities, young French people have found the doors closed for three years under China’s zero-COVID policy. For those who had prioritized China and the Chinese language, this was a great disappointment. The two countries must therefore re-launch these exchanges, in both directions.
Ultimately, diplomacy will motivate Macron’s first trip in four years. The recent meeting in Moscow between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the question of a central role for China in the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict.
Beijing cannot afford to alienate Europeans, and their market of 420 million consumers, at a time when Chinese-American relations are deteriorating. In Beijing’s eyes, the EU is the only possible partner in the West.
The Kremlin’s language
But Beijing does not seem to want to accept reality in Europe, which faces the systematic aggression of Russia in Ukraine. It’s impossible for Europeans to remain passive, but Xi refuses to condemn Putin or to call for the withdrawal of Russian troops.
Europe is both a significant importer of Chinese products and has a huge stake in the fate of Ukraine crisis.
The twelve-point Chinese peace plan, announced on Feb. 24, merely repeats Kremlin talking points. The Macron-Xi meeting could allow the French president, who will be accompanied by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, to send a European message to an all-powerful Chinese leader. China’s presence on the world stage was recently galvanized by the handshake between Iran and Saudi Arabia, under Beijing’s watchful eye. The country’s government is determined to impose itself as a key global player.
When it comes to Kyiv, it will be difficult for Xi to renounce the “unlimited partnership” with Russia, which is increasingly dependent on China. For Xi, the reorganization of the international order would require this partnership between authoritarian powers. Still, he cannot neglect Europe, which is both a significant importer of Chinese products — and also has a huge stake in the fate of Ukraine crisis.
*Philippe Le Corre is a researcher at the Asia Society Policy Institute (a center for analysis on China), and an advisor to Asia Society France and visiting professor at ESSEC.
