-Analysis-
WASHINGTON — There is the fate of Ukraine, of course. More broadly, what’s at stake here is also the future of relations between Europe and America, fractured and perhaps irreparably so. Following French President Emmanuel Macron’s whirlwind trip from Paris to Washington to meet Donald Trump, we feel the gravity of the moment.
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How should Macron talk to Trump, how can he hold his limited attention? How do you counter the Russian-influenced rhetoric conveyed by the U.S. president — like when he accuses Ukraine of being responsible for the war, or Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of being a “dictator”? It’s all part of preparing for a visit to the world’s most unpredictable man, and its most powerful.
Macron wants to convince Trump to accept an alternative plan to the worst-case scenario being prepared, i.e. a U.S.-Russian agreement that would sacrifice Ukraine and European security interests. The French president is going to do it with political arguments, and a share of psychology tailor-made for the man in the White House.
Putin’s bet
The French president will try to persuade Donald Trump that he would be wrong to bet everything on his agreement with Vladimir Putin, whom he is preparing to meet soon in Saudi Arabia. Putin has never respected the ceasefires agreed since 2014, and he will try to install a man of his own in Kiev. At that point, Trump will look like a weak leader — a true nightmare for him.
Europeans should be under no illusions about their ability to influence an imperial presidency.
The French and British have drawn up a detailed plan of security guarantees for Ukraine, to avoid such a catastrophic scenario. The plan calls for thousands of European troops to be sent to Ukraine once a ceasefire has been established, to prevent Russia from resuming its war. But without American security and logistical support, this mission is virtually impossible. For the time being, Washington refuses to show definitive commitment.
On the French side, there’s no hiding the fact that if this American-Russian worst-case scenario were to come true, it could shatter the Atlantic alliance. But Europeans should be under no illusions about their ability to influence an imperial presidency that knows neither allies nor friends.
Beyond Ukraine
European leaders belatedly realized that their American ally had become a de facto adversary. U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s speech in Munich will be remembered as the symbol of this fracture. It remains to be seen what the consequences will be.
Emmanuel Macron sees this as ‘a historic moment of convergence.’
It is perhaps in Germany that the wake-up call is the loudest. Friedrich Merz, the winner of Sunday’s elections, recognized that Europe must become “truly independent” of the United States. Macron spoke to him while flying to Washington, and sees this as “a historic moment of convergence”.
On the eve of the vote, Merz said that the U.S. security guarantee was no longer secure, and that he would approach France and the UK to see how their nuclear “umbrella” could be extended to Germany. It’s a longstanding debate, but one that is now coming to the fore with breathtaking acuity. Let’s call it the Trump effect!
