-Analytics-
NEW DELHI — Judging by the avalanche of angry traffic in community WhatsApp groups — baying for vengeance and retribution in response to the massacre at Pahalgam in Kashmir — it is clear that the ruling establishment faces a formidable challenge in statecraft: how to resist the temptation of a full-fledged civil war along Hindu-Muslim fault lines.
Sample this provocative message doing the rounds, one of dozens that agents provocateurs are circulating so as to extract political mileage from a national tragedy:
Homage
Start today what they did;
Ask the name and strike where it hurts the most;
Ask the name and remove them from your employment;
Ask the name and refuse to buy anything from them;
Ask the name, cancel the taxi;
Ask the name and boycott them completely.
We shall face inconvenience for a week or two,
But the results will be very good indeed.
This is not the first time such a provocation has tested the wisdom of the Indian state and its seasoned apparatchiks. But the challenge today is even more consequential because the impresarios of the incumbent government have trapped themselves in a deep hole. Having long accused previous governments non-affiliated to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP party of lacking the “will” to “sort out Pakistan,” the government is now under immense pressure to at least replicate something akin to a “Balakot” — the bombing raid conducted by Indian warplanes on Feb. 26, 2019 in Balakot, Pakistan, against an alleged terrorist training camp.
The ruling party has made the idea of a “surgical strike” its political signature. Senior ministers have casually spoken about walking into Pakistan-occupied Kashmir at a moment of their choosing. Such rhetoric has only whetted the collective appetite for a more “muscular” response, beyond the so-called “diplomatic surgical strike” decided by Modi’s Cabinet Committee on Security on April 23.
Military martyrdom
How Islamabad might react if the Modi regime succumbs to this frenzy is of little concern to the ruling party and its “core” constituency. Inflicting “pain” on Pakistan has become an emotionally satisfying pursuit. The BJP has routinely tried to convert military martyrdom into electoral capital. The pretense of being “uncompromising” in our “determination” to roll back terrorism has yielded rich dividends at the ballot box. Now, the ruling coterie feels obliged not only to send a message to Pakistan and other terror-vendors but also to satisfy its supporters’ craving for fireworks.
Whether or not Pakistan can endure this “pain” without escalating matters into a broader conflict is a question best left to defense analysts. If New Delhi and Islamabad blunder into a limited war, both establishments might even find such a confrontation a useful distraction from pressing domestic and economic challenges.
A socially fragmented nation can never achieve greatness.
Yet, even a limited war will not solve the fundamental issue: how to prevent the widening Hindu-Muslim chasm in India. If three or four terrorists can push us into communal delirium, transforming every village into battlegrounds of inter-community strife, then they would have succeeded brilliantly in their goal — to weaken India. A socially fragmented nation can never achieve greatness.
True to form, the Muslim community has responded with wisdom. Despite long-standing grievances, ordinary Kashmiris too have raised a united voice against the Pahalgam horror. Prominent Muslim groups and individuals have unequivocally condemned the attackers and their agenda – pre-empting the demands the right-wing makes of them and of no other community.
Still, we cannot entirely rule out the possibility that an irresponsible media might elevate one or two fringe maulanas religious leaders, to create a divisive counter-narrative. Indian Muslims have long struggled to resist being painted as proxies for Islamabad’s “thousand cuts” policy. Incidents like Pahalgam and the attempts by hot-headed Hindutva social media warriors to exploit them make that resistance far more difficult.
Even under normal conditions, our social harmony remains precarious—and it has been steadily undermined over the past decade. The far-right Hindutva paramilitary organization Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has pursued a campaign of “Hindu consolidation,” urging caste-ridden Hindus to overcome internal divisions as a prerequisite for national unity. Only the other day, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat called for “one temple, one well, and one cremation ground.” While seemingly innocuous, such messages carry implicit calls for unity against a perceived “enemy.”
Risky tactics v. encouraging signs
Meanwhile, the BJP’s electoral strategy (particularly in Uttar Pradesh) has aimed to politically marginalise Muslims. Remember the atrocious slogan, “batenge to katenge”, meaning that Hindus “will be slaughtered if divided” — initially pronounced by BJP-affiliated Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath? This tactic has paid off electorally, but it has deepened the psychological and social divide between communities. Entrepreneurial gurus and godmen have concocted similar absurdities before, now it’s easy to imagine local BJP strategists working to fold “Pahalgam” into their political pitch.
We will do ourselves no favors by allowing Pakistan to provoke us into a civil war between “us” and “them.”
There are encouraging signs that some sober voices within the ruling establishment recognize the dangerous implications of worsening Hindu-Muslim relations for national security and prosperity. Presumably, such voices may have been the ones who persuaded the prime minister to launch his “Saugat-e-Modi” outreach last month — the BJP decided in March to distribute festive kits called “Gifts from Prime Minister Modi” to Muslim, Sikh and Christian communities on the occasion of Eid, Vaisakhi and Easter. However motivated, such gestures are better than overt rejection and ostracism. Yet after Pahalgam, these voices may find themselves on the back foot.
The national challenge in the wake of Pahalgam is to break free from our stunted imagination, limited by the empty slogan of “political will.” We will do ourselves no favors by allowing Pakistan to provoke us into a civil war between “us” and “them.” This is the real test. Let’s see if our national leadership has the wisdom to thwart Pakistan’s game plan.
