Between alliance and provocation

The political dimension is clear, but it remains to be seen what practical implications Xi Jinping's visit will have — and in particular, whether it will shed light on a key question from the past year: how far will China go in its support of Russia? Could it go as far as delivering lethal weapons to Russia?

So far, China has been careful not to do so, despite a significant increase in trade between the two countries. The delivery of weapons would likely result in Western sanctions, at a time when the Chinese economy is already slowing.

It is more likely that Xi will engage in a subtle balancing act between anti-American rhetoric and a desire to present himself to the world as a man of peace.

Cultivating China's place in the world

Last month, China presented a peace plan for Ukraine. The plan contains nothing too concrete, but it could go further during this trip, if only to bolster China's peaceful image among countries in the Global South.

These visits are not the actions of a man who's about to end a war that he sees as a civilizational conflict.

Can Xi really help to end the war? Not at this stage, judging by two highly symbolic visits made by Putin ahead of Xi's arrival: first to Crimea, and then, for the first time, Mariupol, the Ukrainian coastal city conquered at a high price last year, and from which a thousand children were taken to Russia.

These visits are not the actions of a man who's about to end a war that he sees as a civilizational conflict; they are a gesture of defiance, a sign that the war is not over.

Xi has a different agenda. It is political, and that of the emerging superpower. He does not want to let go of Putin or be drawn into a war that is not his; and, above all, he is cultivating China's place in the world at a time when tensions with the United States are running high. We'll be watching Moscow until Wednesday as he tries to achieve this delicate balance.