-Analysis-
PARIS — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky‘s visit to Paris Friday evening, for a few hours, is the symbol of a European counter-offensive, even if it is a coincidence of timing. Zelensky, who also stopped in Berlin, will sign a Franco-Ukrainian security treaty with French President Emmanuel Macron. This is the second of its kind, after the one Ukraine signed with the UK, and will be followed by similar texts with some 25 European and G7 countries.
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This treaty does not fundamentally change the situation, but it does provide Ukraine with much-needed political and material support. It is a substitute for NATO membership, which was refused at last year’s Vilnius summit. Zelensky felt he had been let down by his supporters, but these bilateral treaties are designed to prove that this is not the case; even if they do not contain the security guarantee provided by Article 5 of the treaty.
Of course, Europe didn’t wait for the doubts coming from Washington before mobilizing for Ukraine. In fact, they’ve even done more than U.S. Republicans, who have nothing but contempt for the affairs of the Old Continent.
A novelty and a historic turning point
Yesterday, European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, who is candidate for a second term after the European elections, proposed the creation of a European Commissioner for Defense. This is both a novelty and a historic turning point: the European construction has always avoided the subject of defense, and all efforts, particularly French ones, to tackle it have so far been seen as a plot to weaken NATO.
The war in Ukraine changed everything, with European funds being used to finance arms purchases for Kiev’s army; Thierry Breton, the European commissioner in charge of the defense industry, organized the unprecedented ramp-up of artillery shell production on the continent.
But a defence commissioner, in other words a minister of defence, is a further step toward building the geopolitical Europe that Von der Leyen spoke of at the start of her term, and which is still largely a slogan.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend
Europe can say a big “Merci” to former U.S. President Donald Trump! It’s a classic scenario: there’s nothing like a big scare, or a common enemy, to get things moving. It was previously said that Russian President Vladimir Putin had brought more progress in Europe’s political cohesion than its own leaders had in two decades. We can now say the same thing about the former, and perhaps future, Republican president.
It’s not the will, but the industrial capacity
But it is not enough to compensate any American defection in its support for Ukraine. It’s not the will, but the industrial capacity and collective coherence that Europe lacks to rise to the challenge.
This will no doubt be a topic of conversation at Zelensky’s Parisian dinner party, as he faces the risk of an ammunition shortage and a revitalized Russian army. He has no choice but to believe in Europe.
