-Analysis-
KYIV — On the night of April 14, Iran used more than 170 kamikaze drones and fired more than 150 missiles of various types at Israel. Tehran had been preparing for this strike for two weeks. Yet the large-scale attack largely failed, causing a wave of memes even in the Arab world.
Perhaps the consequences would have been more tangible if not for the activity of Israel’s allies. The U.S., UK, France and Jordan helped intercept Iran’s attack. Most of the missiles and drones did not reach Israel and were shot down in the airspace of neighboring countries.
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Immediately afterwards, Ukrainians began to look for answers to the question: why can’t Western countries do the same when Russian missiles and UAVs attack us.
The contexts, on the surface, can seem quite comparable. Neither Ukraine nor Israel are NATO members. Both suffered similar air attacks from dictatorial regimes. Western air forces did not enter Iranian airspace to shoot down the missiles it launched and did not approach its borders. Tehran also did not express any grievances against the Western allies who destroyed its weapons.
So, the United States, the United Kingdom and France could act similarly over Ukraine’s airspace. They could, but for some reason they do not.
Where do we draw the line?
Looking for an answer to why everything is so unfair in this cruel world, some Ukrainians have gone down an already trodden path and have begun to blame themselves. They say that the whole problem lies in our country.
For example, Ukraine is very corrupt. If it weren’t for the rampant corruption, maybe NATO countries would have dared to send their planes against Russian missiles and drones attacking Ukrainian cities. But conscience does not allow NATO members to defend such a corrupt kleptocratic state.
Everything is very democratic there. There is real political competition.
Or maybe the reason is that Ukraine is simply not as full-fledged a partner of the West as Israel? After all, the Jewish state has the status of a U.S. ally. It has particularly close relations with Washington. And all Ukraine has is the useless Budapest Memorandum with its non-guarantees of security. In fact, Israel has been receiving aid for decades. Whereas the West is still hesitant to give Ukraine certain types of weapons and warns against attacking Russia too aggressively.
Ukraine is also not very democratic. If Ukraine had democracy like in Israel, it would definitely be properly protected. What can Ukraine expect with its oligarchs, mono-majority and restrictions on various freedoms? Israel is totally different matter. Everything is very democratic there. There is real political competition. The U.S. would burn with shame if it did not protect such a democratic country against drones launched by the Ayatollahs’ authoritarian criminal regime.
Or maybe Western allies decided not to shoot down Russian air targets because they don’t like Ukraine’s politicians? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is deeply admired and trusted, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is not.
Or maybe it’s because Ukraine has pursued a foolish disarmament policy since regaining its independence and has not developed its own military-industrial complex. If it had acted more wisely, like Israel, Western aid would have been forthcoming.
Perhaps some of the criticism is objective. No one disputes the fact that Ukraine has a major problem with corruption; that the quality of its “political elites” is not the best, to put it mildly; and that the performance of Ukrainian officials in various fields is often very mediocre. And Ukrainians themselves have contributed to the destruction of the military-industrial complex.
But none of that explains why Western countries are hesitant to help Ukraine the way they helped Israel on April 14 in the night sky of the Middle East.
Relations with Russia
In reality, everything is much more banal and simple. Ukrainians often over-idealize the West and its political elites, endowing them with features that we would like to see but are not real.
The West is hesitant to help Ukraine shoot down Russian missiles and drones simply because it is afraid of Russia, and it wants to minimize any risks of involvement in a direct military conflict. It is not because there is something wrong with Ukraine; is not the total corruption in the country or the mistakes and inefficiency of its political elites. It is the fear of Russia that is making the West act differently in the skies over Ukraine and Israel.
Due to its fear of escalation and unwillingness to confront Russia, the West has not shot down Russian missiles in the skies over Poland and has ignored Russian drones in Romanian airspace. NATO has every right to destroy such targets, yet it does not act. So what can be said about the air defense of Ukraine?
“If you want to avoid an escalation in terms of a wider European war, I think the one thing you do need to avoid is NATO troops directly engaging Russian troops. That would be a danger of escalation,” British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said when asked why his country is not helping Ukraine shoot down Russian missiles.
A reality check
U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller voiced a similar position: “We are not in armed military conflict with Russia, which is what it would require for U.S. planes to be in the skies over Ukraine engaging with Russian attacks. And we are not going to be in direct armed conflict with Russia. The president of the United States has made that very clear.”
The situation of Ukraine and Israel cannot be compared.
The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, gave a more cunning answer to the question of why the situation of Ukraine and Israel cannot be compared: “Iran’s strikes were carried out over the air bases of the armies of France, the United States, the United Kingdom and Jordan. They acted in self-defense. This does not happen in Ukraine. There are no UK or U.S. air bases on the territory of Ukraine, nor on the territory over which Russian missiles are flying, and certainly not Jordan.”
It is also worth considering the difference in military potential and geographic location between Iran and Russia. Iran cannot currently threaten a direct response to NATO countries. And it does not even really want to. But Russia can. And it has significantly greater capabilities to do so. No one in the West wants to test Russia’s response to the destruction of its missiles or drones, no matter how cowardly it may look. This is a reality that Ukrainians should take into account.
So, no matter how much we want it, Ukrainians will not see NATO forces destroying Russian air targets in the skies near or over Ukraine. And so far, Ukraine has not able to influence the attitudes of Western politicians.