-Analysis-
Ten minutes: that was how long the Blinken-Lavrov meeting lasted. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov were both in New Delhi for the Foreign Ministers meeting of the G20, the group of the world’s leading economies.
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It was their first meeting since the war in Ukraine began a year ago — and it was brief, to say the least.
The Russian spokeswoman even made it clear that there were “no meetings or negotiations” during this brief gathering, which was initiated by the U.S.
This non-dialogue is similar to what happened at the G20 meeting, more generally. This is among the only forums where Western, Russian and Chinese officials meet.
It was at the G20 Summit in Bali in November that U.S President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping renewed their dialogue. Russian President Vladimir Putin did not attend.
Thursday in Delhi, the climate was even icier.
And it was all to the dismay of the Indian presidency of the G20, which was counting on its non-aligned attitude regarding the war in Ukraine to help create some diplomatic movement.
In Delhi, agreeing on a joint statement on the war seemed out of the question: the Russians and the Chinese went their separate ways, preventing any consensus, however weak.
Chinese contradictions
This only confirms that this is not yet the time for diplomacy, despite recent announcements hinting at the opposite, in particular the famous Chinese plan that has set off rivers of ink flowing.
China is in a fully contractionary position. It tries to appear as a responsible great power that seeks to ease tensions. It publishes its 12-point plan, and calls for a ceasefire with Moscow’s ally, the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.
But at the same time, Beijing blocks every statement of any significance at the G20, and sticks permanently to the anti-American discourse shared with the Kremlin.
This is all the more contradictory as it often presents itself as the spokesperson, or even the natural leader of the “Global South,” the name given to countries that refuse to align themselves with either camp in Ukraine.
U.S. intel transparency
And there is also now the suspicion of impending Chinese arms supplies to Russia, a major issue right now. The U.S. revealed that Beijing was considering supplying Russia with “lethal” equipment — as opposed to computer or logistical equipment. Beijing denied this, but the accusations continued this week with a statement from CIA Director William Burns.
Washington wants to dissuade the Chinese from crossing the rubicon.
One wonders why the Americans are being so transparent in their intelligence, much as they had rightly announced in advance the plans for a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Like last year, this could be an attempt at deterrence, accompanied by the implicit threat of sanctions.
There is a decisive moment in this tug of war, because if China starts to deliver war material (we are talking about drones at first), it could tip the balance of power. Washington wants to dissuade the Chinese from crossing the rubicon: the failure of the G20 meeting is from this point of view a bad omen.
