The oprichnina

But the 1560s brought hardships to Ivan IVs rule. His rule was devastated by droughts, famine and major setbacks in the Livonian War, where Russia faced coalitions of Swedes, Danes, Norwegians, Lithuanians and Poles in the Baltic region. The time was also marked by personal tragedies. His first wife Anastasia Romanovna died in 1560, and his close friend Prince Andrey Kurbsky defected to the enemy.

He became increasingly paranoid and suspicious of the Russian nobility, leading him to introduce the brutal oprichnina policy in 1565 — a policy of repression spearheaded by thousands of oprichniki, a personal force that killed suspected opponents. Although commoners and the then-second largest Russian city Novgorod fell victim to the oprichniki, they mainly focused on stamping out any sign of resistance from nobles.

The tsar would end up distrusting even the oprichnina, and dissolved it after they failed to defend Moscow from a Crimean tatar raid. Still, repression continued, albeit on a smaller scale, and the economic downfall, complied with nomadic raids and the consequence of the government's terror weakened Russia, paving the way to the so-called “times of troubles”.

Modern-day Skuratov

While the formal head of the oprichniki was the tsar himself, their most influential leader was Malyuta Skuratov. He personally strangled the Metropolitan of Moscow Philip, and killed thousands in Novgorod.

In the complex landscape of Russian politics today, Wagner leader Prigozhin seems to possess the necessary qualities to become a modern-day Skuratov. While Prigozhin has been vocal in his criticisms of the Russian elite, he will not likely directly challenge Putin, because he knows that would mean death.

Prigozhin possesses the tools to enforce the regime's rule and quell any insurgency.

Moscow's need for a modern oprichnina is similar to that of 450 years ago. The Kremlin finds itself in a challenging position, with setbacks in the war against Ukraine, coupled with the tightening of international sanctions. To maintain control and secure resources, Putin's regime may resort to increased repression against both ordinary citizens and members of the elite.

This is where Prigozhin's capabilities could come into play. With his connections to professional mercenaries, Prigozhin possesses the tools to enforce the regime's rule and quell any insurgency.

Prigozhin’s main strength lies in his professional mercenaries in Africa, where he looks after Russia's interests in mining as well as his ownership of the Internet Research Agency, a company engaged in spreading online propaganda. He has proven himself to be willing to get his hands dirty, and his resources make him a valuable asset on the Russian political chessboard.

If the need for a contemporary oprichnina arises, Putin may already have a tried and tested individual to assign for the task.