-Analysis-
PARIS — History tell us that when a country is at war, the population typically unites behind its leader. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is an exceptional case.
Millions of Israelis gathered in Tel Aviv and other major cities Saturday night to demand his resignation and anticipated national elections. Polls only give him 15% domestic support, with none of Israel’s major international allies fully trusting him, starting with U.S. President Joe Biden.
Yet, three months after the October 7 massacre, Netanyahu is still there, and the man who holds the record as longest-serving prime minister since the founding of modern Israel has no intention of giving up power. To remove him, he would have to lose his razor-thin four-seat majority at the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, which would crack his fragile coalition.
Whether Netanyahu will remain or leave is a central question, both for the continuation of military operations in Gaza and perhaps in the North against Hezbollah in Lebanon; and especially for the post-war period. Indeed, he wants a say in all three.
Sources of unpopularity
Among the multiple reasons for his unpopularity, three key points stand out. First, the fracture caused by the ultra-right that has been in power for the past year. All year long, up until Oct. 7, hundreds of thousands of Israelis protested every week against a reform bill put forward by the government and taking the country down a path that threatened the basic tenets of democracy.
On January 1, despite the war, Israel’s supreme court, also its main democratic watchdog, struck down one of the key provisions of this reform. One ultra-right religious columnist tweeted that the decision was even more brutal than the Oct. 7 massacre — before retracting the statement. But the repudiation of Netanyahu in the decision is considerable, and fuels his unpopularity.
The second grievance is the historic security fiasco of Oct. 7, for which he refuses to take responsibility. On January 4, the Israeli Defense Forces General Staff opened an internal investigation into the failures that cost the lives of 1,200 Israelis murdered by Hamas. The government’s right wing has strongly protested, fearing what the probe will reveal, and the subsequent consequences.
Netanyahu and his far-right allies are dreaming out loud of ethnic cleansing in Gaza
The third issue is the war itself: many Israelis are torn between their desire for vengeance after the horrors of Oct. 7 and their deep distrust of their prime minister. This is seen in the debate over the fate of the hostages still held by Hamas, which has taken a back seat.
Neither Hamas, nor Bibi
Israel’s top ally, the United States, is also suspicious of Netanyahu whom they criticize for a strategy that has caused thousands of civilian casualties in Gaza. But Washington is also prisoner of in the regional challenge against Iran. The Washington Post reported over the weekend that the Biden administration was concerned about Israel’s deliberate escalation in the exchanges with Lebanon-based Hezbollah.
The question of Netanyahu’s staying in office becomes crucial in the post-war period. The prime minister and his far-right allies, all dreaming aloud of ethnic cleansing in Gaza, do not want a political solution with the Palestinians. Washington, instead, is hoping for a post-war period without Hamas — but also without Netanyahu.
Nothing could be less certain. If the 74-year-old leader has shown a constant talent over time, it is that of ensuring his own political survival.
