Updated Jan. 8, 2024 at 8 p.m.
-Analysis-
More than half of the world’s population will take part in national elections this year — a first in human history.
From Russia to Taiwan, the United Kingdom and Indonesia, voters will be called upon to choose new legislative assemblies and new heads of state. At first glance, it could look like the triumph of democracy. But in most cases, the outcome is already known: in Russia, India and almost everywhere in Africa, the parties in power muzzle opposition leaders to secure their reelection.
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Still this doesn’t change the momentous nature of this new year. Many votes will resonate well beyond their borders. The Taiwanese elections that will be held next week will determine future relations between Taipei and Beijing, and as a result, between China and the United States.
But it is the U.S. election, at the beginning of November, which will seal the future of the entire planet. If Donald Trump returns to the White House, the fate of Ukraine, the Middle East and, more generally, global security will be disrupted. Russia will have every chance of winning, hopes for peace in the Middle East will fade, and the pillars of our security will have to be reinvented — with the probable death of NATO. To think that a few thousand American voters could change the course of the world in this way is truly dizzying.
A war economy
Even if the scenario is far from being written — it is not yet certain that Biden and Trump will be in the final race — Europe must prepare now for any and all possible outcomes.
First by becoming the singular leader in supporting Ukraine. By establishing a real war economy, the bloc will be able to mitigate the catastrophic effects of a potential comeback of Trumpism. Right now there is still a long way to go: only a third of the 2-billion-euro European program to arm Ukrainians has been met.
We are alone.
We must change the very sense of scale, increase our resources tenfold with the dual objective of supporting Ukraine and developing our own defense industry, in anticipation of the military disengagement that Trump would push.
But more than that, we need to change our strategic posture. We have to take on power and the defense of our economic and industrial interests, in a context of exacerbated rivalries, bloc against bloc. Knowing that we are alone, and that the forces of decline threaten us as much at home — the populist impasse — as much as in the face of our rivals around the world.
