-Analysis-
PARIS — How can we stop the war in Gaza, which has been piling up a tragic human toll now with each passing day? This has been a recurring question for more than four months. Yet the stakes have become even more acute with the threat of an Israeli offensive on the city of Rafah, currently home to 1.4 million Palestinians, most of them displaced from other cities.
They have nowhere else to go.
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Attention is now focused on a deadline: the start of Ramadan, around March 10 — that’s less than three weeks away. Israel is threatening to launch its offensive on Rafah if the 130 or so Israeli hostages have not been freed by then. Yet the threat this time comes, not from Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu, but from his political opponent Benny Gantz, a member of the war cabinet.
This is a way to show the world that there’s a sacred union over this attack against which Western capitals are protesting.
Decisive moment
Negotiations in Cairo between Qatar and Egypt, mediators with Hamas, on the one hand, and Israel and the United States on the other, are at an impasse. There is fading hope of a truce that would allow hostages to be exchanged for prisoners, and more humanitarian aid to be brought in. All that remains is war.
Ramadan is a period of intense religious activity in the Muslim world, and many would like the war to have ended before the Holy Month begins. By threatening instead to launch its offensive on this date, Israel is showing that its determination has not wavered since the October 7 massacre, despite growing international pressure.
There are only two scenarios for the fighting to stop.
At the same time, the Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir, one of the leaders of the extreme right, proposed a plan to severely restrict access, during Ramadan, to Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa (Temple Mount), the venerated holy site for Muslims. The plan was not fully taken up, particularly by Palestinians in Israel, who have rights as citizens of the Jewish state, unlike the inhabitants of the Occupied Territories.
Still, everyone is expecting Ramadan to be a decisive moment, in a climate of unrestrained confrontation.
International pressure
There are only two scenarios for the fighting to stop. Either because Israel feels it has achieved its objectives, and can proclaim a “victory” to its population, which is not the case so far; or because international pressure has truly made itself felt, which is also not the case.
The situation is critical, however, with over 29,000 dead and tens of thousands wounded, according to Hamas figures that humanitarian aid workers do not deny; and with the collapse of the healthcare system, including in recent days with the attack on the Nasser medical complex, where Israel claims to have captured Hamas fighters.
That leaves international pressure. We hear Western positions expressed more forcefully, against an attack on Rafah, or in favor of a ceasefire, and even the threat of recognition of the State of Palestine, which is no longer a “taboo”, said French President Emmanuel Macron three days ago.
But for the moment, nothing is happening — except that the countdown to the first day of Ramadan has begun.
