-Analysis-
PARIS — Can Israel wage its war in Gaza without caring about the opinion of its allies?
Since fighting resumed in the Palestinian territory on Friday, serious disagreements have emerged with the United States and, to a lesser extent, with France. It is the disagreements with the U.S. that carry significant consequences: Washington plays a vital role in this conflict by supplying weapons and deploying a considerable military apparatus to deter the regional expansion of the confrontation.
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This weekend, both Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Vice President Kamala Harris expressed serious reservations about how Israel is conducting its operations. The issue at hand is the massive aerial strikes on densely populated areas, resulting in a considerable number of civilian casualties.
These criticisms came after Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Israel last week on the eve of the resumption of hostilities, urging Benjamin Netanyahu to change to a strategy that better protects civilians. Israel chose not to heed this advice, resulting in the current diplomatic tensions.
Strategy of anger
There are several reasons for this standoff, but it stems primarily from Israel’s persistent anger, not only after the October 7 massacre but also due to how Hamas handled the hostage situation, toyin with the emotions of the families.
Israel believes that by striking forcefully, it will reinstate its psychological edge that collapsed on October 7. This is manifested in the carpet bombing witnessed in the initial phase of the war, which resumed on Friday in the south, with civilians paying a high price.
“The disproportionate response is an essential element of Israel’s strategic culture,” wrote French researcher Samy Cohen in 2009 in a book dedicated to the Israeli army (Tsahal à l’épreuve du terrorisme – IDF, Facing Terrorism). It is precisely this disproportionality, this collective punishment, where Israel’s allies are increasingly focusing their criticism.
While Americans advocate for a different approach, they have not specified what actions will be taken if Israel persists. According to Israeli officials, this new phase of the war in southern Gaza, where Hamas leaders are embedded in a very densely populated urban fabric, could last for several months.
Austin’s warning
But Washington believes that without a change in strategy, Israel won’t have several months ahead. Public opinion won’t support it.
Secretary of Defense Austin even mentioned in a speech on Saturday the possibility that by targeting civilians, Israel might condemn itself to a political defeat.
This message was similar to the one conveyed by French President Emmanuel Macron on Saturday from Dubai. He urged Israel to better clarify its war goals because, in his view, eradicating Hamas “could take 10 years.” Macron, who was a strong supporter of Israel on October 7, is now distancing himself.
Israel can dismiss French criticisms — Netanyahu is accustomed to doing just that. What it cannot ignore are the questions coming from its American ally, unless it is prepared to fight alone against the rest of the world. That’s what Israelis should be thinking about right now.
