Did Israel Set A Trap For Iran — Or For Itself?

-Analysis-

PARIS — The key word in the wars we are witnessing in the Middle East is “deterrence.” Since October 7, Israel has been trying to reestablish — by force — its lost deterrence with Palestinians. The result has been an endless, disproportionate war that has ravaged Gaza, claimed tens of thousands of victims, and still seems far from having reestablished that lost deterrent.

With Iran, the issue is even more complex, but the principle of deterrence is the same. Israel wants to show its enemies, both Iran and its network of allies, starting with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, that the price to be paid for any threat to its territory is very high. The problem is that the cost of deterrence continues to rise.

First in 33 years

The latest situation with Iran includes several “firsts”: The first direct attack by a state against Israel in 33 years, since the missiles launched by Saddam Hussein during the first Gulf War; the first direct confrontation between Iran and Israel, despite being 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles) apart, the first de facto alliance between Israel, the West, and certain Arab countries against an Iranian attack.

It’s a lot, and it’s surely not over.

This is obviously not a new hostility, but 7 October changed the situation.

First of all, we have to understand what provoked this sudden escalation. In parallel with the response in Gaza, Israel has been in indirect confrontation with Iran for six months, whether with Hezbollah or in Syria, where Iran has support points. This is obviously not a new source for hostility, but October 7 changed the situation.

The Israeli General Staff have stepped up the pressure on their opponents, attacking a Hamas leader sheltered in the Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut and accelerating air raids on Syrian territory — and finally, with the air strike on April 1 against an annex of the Iranian Consulate in Damascus that killed a top general of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

The spiral has begun

Indeed, the April 1 air strike raises multiple questions.

Did Israel underestimate the impact of this latest strike against what is technically Iranian territory? Or was it a trap for Iran, who thought it was saving face by launching this massive attack that was sufficiently well telegraphed ahead of time to be stopped by Israel and its allies?

In either case, the spiral has begun.

In its quest to reestablish its deterrence against Iran, Israel cannot fail to respond to what was an unprecedented attempt to attack its territory with more than 300 drones and missiles.

There’s an old Israeli temptation to destroy Iranian nuclear program sites.

But it’s also an old Israeli temptation to destroy Iranian nuclear program sites, because the Jewish state knows that the day that Iran becomes a new nuclear power, the rules of the regional game change radically.

Is there another option?

Yes, there is diplomacy, without a doubt more complicated, relying on the emerging alliance with part of the Arab world to face down Iran. But this path requires a solution to the Palestinian tragedy, because, let’s not forget, the war continues in Gaza.

Above all, Benjamin Netanyahu believes first and foremost in deterrence, which could lead him to opt for escalation, with all the risks that it brings.