-Analysis-
CAIRO — With eyes diverted on its battles with Hezbollah and Iran, the Israeli army has launched one of its broadest operations in northern Gaza since the war began a year ago. This broad assault on the northern sector involves air, land, and sea strikes, preceded by a strict blockade that cut off food, water, medicine, and fuel supplies, and has resulted in some cases in the complete destruction of entire residential blocks.
The Israeli army is executing its plan to forcibly displace residents of northern Gaza to the south, while preventing them from seeking refuge in nearby Gaza City. Their only escape route from this situation is the Salah al-Din Road, which runs along Gaza’s eastern flank, from north to south.
The Jabalia refugee camp has become a primary target for these military operations. This camp, which once sheltered Palestinians displaced by the Nakba in 1948, has turned into a scene of devastation, with reports of victims’ bodies strewn across the streets.
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Although Israel hasn’t publicly disclosed the primary goal of its moves, the destruction of public facilities, water wells, bakeries, and flour stores, along with the burning of UN shelters, strongly indicates a plan to clear northern Gaza completely. This area, from the north of the Nitzarim axis set up by Israel in the middle of the sector to the Gaza envelope settlements, covers only 360 square kilometers and is home to around 2.1 million people.
Evacuating northern Gaza and turning it into a military zone is a key objective under a plan by Israeli generals, developed under the guidance of former Israeli National Security Advisor Giora Eiland, who has advocated relocating Palestinians to Egypt’s Sinai desert.
Israel’s Gaza plan
What’s happening in Gaza not only is a new catastrophe for the Palestinians, but also puts Egypt in a complicated position, as it has consistently rejected attempts to forcibly displace and resettle Palestinians in Sinai.
After the war, Israel may block reconstruction efforts, forcing even more people to leave.
National and regional security expert General Dr. Ahmed El-Shahat views the situation as a major challenge both for Egypt and the future of the Palestinian cause. Israel is trying to make Gaza uninhabitable, aiming to alter its demographic and geographic characteristics, which El-Shahat describes as “Egypt’s biggest challenge.”
Since the start of the war, Egypt has taken a firm stance against relocating Palestinians to Sinai, as reflected in clear statements by President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Prime Minister Dr. Mostafa Madbouly. Despite this, Israel is pushing forward with its plans, “making the entire Strip unlivable,” explains El-Shahat. The national security expert also warns that after the war, Israel may block reconstruction efforts, forcing even more people to leave the area.
In this scenario, he cautions, “People may move towards Egypt’s borders out of urgent humanitarian need.”
Closed military zone
The Generals’ Plan consists of several stages, starting with the displacement of around 300,000 residents from northern Gaza, forcing Palestinians to move south along the coastal Rashid Road through the Nitzarim crossing, which divides the Strip in half. After emptying the area of residents, the plan would transform northern Gaza into a closed military zone.
Following this initial phase, a total blockade on the remaining population in northern Gaza is to be enforced, isolating it from the rest of the enclave and preventing any movement in or out. Humanitarian aid and supplies, including food, fuel, and water, would be halted, with all remaining individuals considered military targets.
Dr. Ahmed Farouk, a consultant at the National Center for Studies and a national security expert, sees Israel’s intent to expel Gaza’s residents and erase them from maps. He points to the maps Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented at the UN General Assembly, which notably lacked any mention of Gaza or the West Bank, and showed a Palestine-free map with Israel dominating the space.
Civilians are given no choice but to either leave or starve.
Starving the Palestinian population and crowding them at the border also affects Egypt, as Farouk notes, creating a densely populated strip of over two million people in a narrow space if Israel’s plan for northern Gaza succeeds. This raises concerns about potential attempts to cross into Egypt, especially with winter approaching.
Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Bassem Naim affirms that “the Palestinian resistance and people who have sacrificed so much will not allow Israel’s plans to succeed.” He warns that Israel’s plan aims to empty northern Gaza of its population through massacres, starvation, and forced migration southward.
Leave or starve
The UNRWA Commissioner-General, Philippe Lazzarini, sounded a similar alarm, stating on the X platform: “Civilians are given no choice but to either leave or starve.” He emphasized the dire conditions, noting the collapse of the health system in northern Gaza and the deliberate Israeli prevention of aid deliveries to the area since September 30.
With mounting pressure and Palestinians increasingly displaced in the south, Egypt, which opposes the forced migration plans, may face a more complex situation. Its continued efforts to push for an end to the war and leading negotiations aimed at ceasefire agreements have so far failed.
Regional security expert Ahmed El-Shahat emphasizes that Egypt has prepared for all scenarios involving this threat to both the Palestinian cause and its borders, stepping up security measures along the border. This is underscored by Egyptian Chief of Staff General Ahmed Khalifa’s recent visit to the border area near Gaza, which was a very clear message that Egypt will push back hard on any such plans.
