-Analysis-
PARIS — Monday marks the 73rd day of the war in Gaza, and I believe the answers to the following three questions will determine the future of the conflict.
The first: When will Israel have to bow to pressure from its friends, mainly the United States, and change the way its conducting the war?
Israel’s modus operandi since the Hamas massacre in southern Israel on October 7 has resulted in a disproportionately high number of civilian victims among the Palestinians, including thousands of women and children.
Among the latest victims are situations that shine the light on how Israeli is carrying out its war. There were the three Israeli hostages shot dead while carrying a white flag; there was also the French consular agent killed in the bombardment of a building described by the French foreign ministry as residential, an illegitimate target for a military strike.
These cases, like those of so many other victims, clearly contradict the official Israeli discourse, and require for a change of strategy.
U.S. Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, is in Israel on Monday to plead for an end to massive air strikes, which mainly kill civilians, in favor of targeted raids on Hamas installations.
For their part, France, and now the UK and Germany, are calling for a ceasefire, in particular to allow hostages to be freed. Despite its intransigence, Israel is exploring this avenue: the head of Mossad intelligence services has once again met with the Qatari Prime Minister, the mediator for the hostages. How long can Israel maintain the same strategy? Probably not very long.
Regional tensions
The second question concerns the region. Since October 7, the question of the regional extension of the conflict has been looming, and there are ongoing efforts to dissuade Iran from provoking an escalation, including the U.S. deployment of considerable forces in the region. But on at least two fronts, this is increasingly insufficient.
Israeli fire against the Lebanese army is seen as unnecessary and provocative.
In the Red Sea, Tehran-backed Houthi rebels from Yemen have succeeded in disrupting commercial shipping with their missile fire. Several international carriers diverted their traffic via the longer and more costly Cape of Good Hope route. And the US, French and British navies used their military resources to intercept Houthi missiles, stepping directly into the conflict.
In southern Lebanon, tensions continue to mount, with regular exchanges of fire between Israel and pro-Iranian Hezbollah; and Israel’s demand that Hezbollah withdraw its forces behind a line drawn by the Litani River, further away from the Jewish state. The Americans are concerned about Israeli fire against the Lebanese army, which is seen as unnecessary and provocative. French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna is in Beirut on Monday to try to diffuse this explosive dynamic.
How much longer can the region hold out? Here again, it’s a case of necessary de-escalation.
Political survival
The third issue is domestic Israeli politics, and concerns the fate of Benjamin Netanyahu: the Prime Minister who is leading the war and at the same time reviled by a majority of his fellow citizens.
The death of the three hostages shot by mistake by the Israeli army has heightened anger and frustration at a leader who certainly embodied his country’s anger after October 7, but has several parallel agendas, including that of his political survival.
Could Netanyahu remain in office until the end of the war, embodying Israel’s hardline refusal in the face of both its American ally and a part of his own public opinion to change tactics? His fate is of little importance, except that it will weigh heavily in what happens after the war.
Three questions that have no immediate answer, but must be faced up to right away.
