-Analysis-
CAIRO — Applying the “now it’s my turn” rules of children playing with a toy, the world should now be waiting for a possible Iranian strike on Israel. That follows the Israeli attack this past weekend on military facilities for manufacturing missiles, drones and air defense batteries in three Iranian provinces.
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However, all indications point to the probability that Tehran — despite its public assertions that it reserves the right to respond —will in fact not do so. Tehran tried to minimize the impact of Israel’s strikes last Saturday, saying losses were limited.
U.S. officials called for Iran not to respond, given that the Israeli strike targeted military facilities.
“”It is our aim to accelerate diplomacy and de-escalate tensions in the Middle East region,” National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett said. “We urge Iran to cease its attacks on Israel so that this cycle of fighting can end without further escalation.”
In fact, despite the war on the Palestinian people in Gaza, Iran has not wanted to engage in a direct confrontation with Israel, which would increase the chances of an American intervention. Tehran — which has spent decades financing, arming and building loyal groups in Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen — still prefers to activate its allied groups to impose its regional hegemony and achieve its goals.
Netanyahu’s trap
Until now, Tehran has carefully avoided being drawn into Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s trap and engaged in direct confrontation with Israel and its main backer, the United States.
Netanyahu has sought to take advantage of the climate of revenge prevailing after the war triggered by the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7. He has steadily expanded the war to deal decisive blows to Iranian arms in the Middle East, then targeting Iran itself and may eventually move to eliminate its nuclear project with American participation.
But with the November 5 election in the United States looming, Israel’s most recent attack on Iran avoided a major escalation. Yet tensions remain, with the ball in Tehran’s court.
Biden agreed with the Iranians not to be drawn into the all-out war that Netanyahu seeks.
Despite the historical hostility between Iran and the United States, President Joe Biden’s administration agreed with the Iranians not to be drawn into the all-out war that Netanyahu seeks.
On Oct. 1, Iran launched a strike on Israel involving 180 ballistic missiles. The goal was also to send a message to Israel that it has the ability to attack important Israeli targets such as air bases and the Mossad headquarters in the heart of Tel Aviv, showing that major Israeli cities have also become within Tehran’s reach.
Biden forced Israel not to expand the retaliation strike Saturday to include nuclear or oil facilities. At the same time, he affirmed his support for what he described as Israel’s right to respond to the Iranian attack, and provided its army with the advanced THAAD air defense system and sent additional squadrons of F-16 aircraft to protect Israel and US forces in the region.
Waiting for Trump
Still, war against Hamas in Gaza, and Hezbollah in Lebanon, is understandable and widely accepted among the U.S. establishment, as these are ultimately seen as wars against “terrorist organizations” by Israeli and American standards.
In practice, despite their heavy human losses, the two wars will not affect global stock markets or raise oil prices, just days before the election in which Vice President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris faces her Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump.
If Harris wins, the order of the day across the region will be: deescalation.
Be clear, Trump is the preferred candidate of Netanyahu and his extremist government. And the Israeli Prime Minister is well aware that he cannot fight Iran without American support, if not direct intervention.
Netanyahu often talks about the fact that he only responds to Israeli security requirements and that he is prepared to fight alone on seven fronts. But in the end, he was unable to disobey American orders not to expand his response to Iran last week.
Netanyahu’s bet
The U.S. pressure came after Iran made clear to Washington that any Israeli attack on Iranian oil or nuclear facilities would have dire consequences on the U.S.-allied Gulf oil states, and that striking Saudi oil facilities would not be out of the question in this context, according to the website Axios.
The Iranian foreign minister’s regional tour came with a warning
In this context, the Iranian foreign minister’s regional tour came with a warning that his country would not stand idly by if Washington did not rein in Netanyahu.
It was striking that immediately following the latest Israeli attack on Iran, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt were among the first countries to condemn it as an “illegitimate attack on Iranian territory.
“The Biden administration is attempting to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, and to convince Netanyahu that he has notched all the images of victory he needs with the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh, and most recently Yahya Sinwar, not to mention the attacks in Gaza and Lebanon.
Yet while Netanyahu may show responsiveness to the Biden administration’s wishes while still in office, his eyes will of course remain fixed on the outcome of November 5.
Trump’s victory would mean that the expected calm in the confrontation between Israel and Iran in the coming weeks will be just a warrior’s rest, before the Israeli leader resumes his pressure on the future Trump administration to support him in his confrontation with Iran.
Netanyahu will make the case that Iran is “the root of all evil,” and that the latest Israeli strike will be just an opening to a much longer war. That is the scenario, which starts with a Trump victory, that would prolong Netanyahu and his terrorist alliance’s stay in power. If Harris wins, the order of the day across the region will be: deescalation.
